Northwestern is about a third of the way through its 2024-25 season, with 10 games under their belt and 21 to go. In the midst of a week off, it's a good opportunity to take stock and evaluate what we've seen from the Wildcats so far before they take on Georgia Tech in the MKE Tip-Off on Sunday, Dec. 15, in Milwaukee.
Here are five things we've learned so far as the Wildcats stand at 7-3 (1-1 Big Ten).
1. Northwestern has flexed its flexibility: The 2022-23 tournament run was built on swarming defense. The Wildcats brought in assistant coach and defensive mastermind Chris Lowery, they established core principles and finished the season with the 23rd-best scoring defense in the nation.
Cut to 2023-24 and the Wildcats made a shift. Gone was Big Ten Co-DPOY Chase Audige and in was transfer guard Ryan Langborg from Princeton. Add in a resurgent Ty Berry and, of course, Boo Buie at the helm, and the Wildcats suddenly sported three sharpshooters. Berry, Buie and Langborg all shot better than 40% from beyond the arc on five-plus attempts per game, just a season after the Wildcats had no one better than 40% that was shooting even two attempts per game.
Now, as Collins and the Cats are building towards a third straight NCAA run, they've undergone a third seismic shift in as many years. The long-range sharpshooting mentality is out -- the Wildcats beat a ranked Illinois team with just four 3-pointers last week -- and in is a brash, bruising physicality.
The Wildcats' style is yoked to the indefatigable duo of Brooks Barnhizer and Nick Martinelli, who grind down opponent after opponent. The defense hasn't hit the elite peaks of two seasons ago, but it's back in the Top 50 after a drop to 90th last season. Rebounding has spiked, and the Wildcats are averaging nearly six more boards per game. They have shifted from the four-guard lineups that ranked 345th in rebounding last season to the more traditional, two-guard, two-wings and post sets that have them 172nd in the nation through 10 games.
There's still a long way to go but, through the first third of the season, the Wildcats seem to have found their third formula for victory in as many seasons.
2. Rotations will be tight -- again: It seems paradoxical to the incredible development Northwestern has seen from its players, but the Wildcats under head coach Chris Collins these past two seasons have played incredibly tight rotations.
Buie and Barnhizer were both in the Top 15 nationally in minutes per game last season. With Barnhizer out injured, Collins gave swaths of early-season minutes to freshmen guards KJ Windham and Angelo Ciaravino. Ciaravino acquitted himself admirably with 12 points at Dayton. Windham showed some flashes with a 10-point debut against Lehigh and nine at Dayton . Before Barnizer's return, Windham was starting and averaged 23 minutes per game, Ciaravino chipped in 19 minutes per game off the bench.
But since Barnhizer's return, those minutes have evaporated. Ciaravino is down to four minutes per game in the last six games, Windham to eight. Ciaravino played a minute against Illinois last week and Windham was benched while Barnhizer played 45 minutes, Jalen Leach played 43 and Martinelli played 42.
Collins left it all on the floor against Illinois, knowing the importance of avoiding an 0-2 start in conference play and that his guys would soon get a week off to rest, and it paid off. This isn't a rebuilding year and the stakes are high every night as the Wildcats try to build a March Madness resume. Collins knows it, and has gone straight back to loading up his veterans.
Barnhizer has averaged 40 minutes per game over the last four games, taking his season average to 36.5, just .2 short of where it was last season, when he was 14th in the nation. Martinelli is currently playing 36.2 minutes per game, ranking 10th in the nation among players who have played 10 or more games.
Collins played seven players more than one minute against Illinois after playing eight players for more than two minutes at Iowa. Collins likes what he's seen from Ciaravino and Windham for the future, but unless something drastically changes in terms of their production or the health of players in front of them, expect Collins to go with a shorter bench in Big Ten play.
3. Three is the magic number: When three different Wildcats score 10+ points, Northwestern is 7-1, and that loss was on a buzzer beater at Iowa. When they don't, they are 0-2. The keys for Dayton's and Butler's victories over the Wildcats were successfully keying in on NU's top scorers and daring the supporting cast to, well, support.
Dayton got an extra boost with Barnhizer still injured, but Butler followed the template to a T, throwing the kitchen sink at Martinelli and reaping the rewards. The Bulldogs forced the junior breakout star into a nightmarish 3-for-15 shooting effort and remain the only team to hold him under double digits on the season.
What the Wildcats need to succeed is a third scorer, be that Leach or Berry. It was a similar model last season with Berry and Langborg. When one got going, the Cats were competitive; when they both did they were one of the best teams in the country. But when neither did, it was ugly.
Berry has found his groove in fits and spurts as he works his way back from the meniscus tear that robbed him of Northwestern's stretch run last season. He seemed to be fully revived with a 20-point game at Iowa but he fell back off the map against Illinois, with zero points and four fouls in 24 minutes.
Collins has shown remarkable patience with Berry, but the fifth-year grad student has to start consistently delivering the scoring and shooting he did last season, or Collins should weigh other options.
For Leach, the stat is even more direct. When he scores 10+ points, the Wildcats are 7-0. When he doesn't, they're 0-3. He seemed to cement himself as the latest transfer success story when he posted an absolutely critical 16 points in support of Barnhizer and Martinelli in the latest marathon battle at Welsh-Ryan between NU and U of I.
Time is running low for players to find themselves before conference play begins in earnest after the holidays, but if the Wildcats get the Leach that's starting to show up more often than not, or get the right Berry, they'll be in a good spot going forward. If they get both at the same time, watch out.
4. Wildcats could be back to two top-tier conference stars: Northwestern has had two players earn All-Big Ten honors for the past two seasons. Buie and Audige were first- and second-team, respectively, in 2022-23, and Buie and Barnhizer were first- and third-team last season.
Barnhizer, who was a preseason All-Big Ten pick, was expected to have this type of season but has still really impressed. It's surreal to watch a player that averaged 1.7 points per game as a freshman and 7.6 as a sophomore take over games as a senior, especially coming off of a foot injury that caused him to miss the first four games of the season. He's up to 19.7 points, 8.7 rebounds and two steals per game, commanding the Wildcats on both sides of the ball.
Martinelli, though, has been a revelation, averaging 20.8 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. While many expected him to take the next step in his development this season, he's made a leap, scoring more than 25 points four times, including a season-high 32 against Lehigh in the season opener. His scoring and 3-point shooting have both more than doubled from last season; he's hitting a remarkable 57.1% from long distance, though he still takes a judicious two 3s per game.
So much of the all-conference recognition comes as a direct correlation to team success, but if this type of production holds the Wildcats should be back to two players on the Big Ten's top two all-conference teams.
5. Lot of season left but a program turning point is in sight: The old saying is that one's luck but two is skill. The Wildcats are trying to find out what three is.
There is a laundry list of program firsts if the Wildcats are able to replicate something close to their last two seasons, but two would stand above the rest: it would mark three 20-win seasons in a row and three straight trips to the NCAA Tournament.
Northwestern has a long road ahead in a bare-knuckled conference, and Collins is ever-itching to deliver his postgame refrains about how hard it is to win in this league. But the Wildcats can cement a program cornerstone with this season. It would no longer be about what they built around one good core or one fortunate class; it will be sustained success across three seasons, with multiple players developing and replacing each other as stars. Buie begat Barnhizer begat Martinelli.
And, in the wings waits the sterling Class of 2025, with five promising players ready to take over as the next generation.
With two-thirds of the season on the horizon and so much that can still happen, from shooting variance to team health, it's too early to make any bold proclamations. But if Northwestern posts another 20-win season and another trip to the Big Dance, it will be more than just about a few good players. The program will have established itself as a force in the Big Ten to be reckoned with.