Northwestern fans saw plenty of things to be concerned about in the Wildcats’ ugly 38-21 season-opening loss to Michigan State on Friday night.
The Wildcats came out flat and fell behind 14-0 less than halfway through the first quarter. The defense surrendered 511 yards and, as our Michael Fitzpatrick quipped, made Kenny Walker III look like Herschel Walker II. The offensive line surrendered three sacks and seven tackles for loss. The offense failed repeatedly in the red zone and kicker Charlie Kuhbander missed two field goals.
As a result, WildcatReport’s message boards lit up with criticism. There were threads wondering whether Northwestern would win a single Big Ten game. Others advocated for the firing of defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil after his first game on the Wildcat sideline.
But we’re here to talk you off the ledge. There’s no reason for panic quite yet.
Why? The primary reason is that Northwestern has done this before under head coach Pat Fitzgerald. Very recently, in fact. It’s almost a trend.
Go back to 2018. After winning its opener, Northwestern dropped three in a row, including an ugly home loss to Akron, a MAC team that finished 4-8 that season. What did the Wildcats do? They won seven straight Big Ten games, captured the program’s first-ever West division title and wound up Holiday Bowl champions.
The year before that, in 2017, Northwestern went down to Duke in Week 2 and got clobbered, 41-17. After five weeks, they stood at 2-3. How did they respond? They didn’t lose again, winning eight in a row, including the Music City Bowl.
Want another one? In 2016, the Wildcats lost their first two games, to a MAC team (Western Michigan) and – horrors! – a FCS team (Illinois State). They stood at 1-3 after a month and rallied to win six of nine and capture the Pinstripe Bowl.
Slow starts have become as Fitzian as his flat-top haircut. Over the last five years, his Wildcats are 5-12 in September (they didn’t play any games in September last year because COVID-19 postponed the opener until late October). That stretch included losses to two MAC teams, an FCS team and Duke twice.
Yet over the same five years the program has enjoyed historic success. The Wildcats’ record from 2016 through 2020 is 36-25 (.590) and 27-17 (.613) in Big Ten play, with two Big Ten West championships and four straight bowl wins to their credit. They won only five of 17 games in September but went 31-13 in the other months for a gaudy .705 winning percentage.
Fitzgerald may spit out some clunkers early in the season, but by the end of the year, his teams are well-oiled machines playing their best football. He’s earned the benefit of the doubt. Only once in the last five years have the Wildcats finished with a losing record: in 2019, when a team featuring perhaps the worst quarterback play in recent Big Ten history suffered through a disastrous 3-9 season.
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That brings us to a second reason for optimism: Northwestern found its quarterback.
The biggest question mark going into Friday night’s matchup was whether Hunter Johnson was going to be the answer at the most important position on the field. People were anxious to see whether he was going to look like the poised and confident leader from practice that coaches were telling us about, or the overwhelmed deer-in-the-headlights that fans saw in 2019, when he struggled through five starts.
Johnson passed his test with flying colors. Northwestern had a multitude of problems against Michigan State, but Johnson wasn’t one of them. He completed 30 of 43 passes (69.8%) for 283 yards. He threw three touchdown passes and didn’t turn the ball over once.
“I thought I saw a lot of progress from Hunter today, and I’m really proud of him,” said Fitzgerald after the game.
Johnson completed passes to 10 different receivers. He connected on three explosion plays in the first half – a 41-yarder to Bryce Kirtz, a 47-yarder to Stephon Robinson Jr. and a 25-yarder to Charlie Mangieri. When he was pressured – which was quite often – he showed good mobility. He threw a touchdown pass on fourth-and-goal. He went 11-for-11 through the air on Northwestern’s first second-half scoring drive, a possession that included two fourth-down conversions and another TD pass.
He wasn’t perfect, but Johnson showed more than enough to be excited about his future. Same goes for Kirtz and Robinson, who combined for 12 catches for 159 yards and a TD (Robinson’s).
This year’s Northwestern team, we remind you, lost more production (66%) from last season than any other Power Five program, according to ESPN’s Bill Campbell. So early season bumps were largely expected.
The Cats will get a chance to smooth out some of those bumps against FCS Indiana State on Saturday – though Montana’s shocking upset of No. 20 Washington showed that a lower-division opponent is by no means a gimme. Then, the Wildcats close out the month with a tough test on the road at Duke, followed by an always dangerous MAC team, Ohio, at home.
If history teaches us anything, it’s that the Cats may lose another September game. But by the end of the season, chances are this young team will look very different than it does now. Fitzgerald is 16-6 in November and 5-2 in December and January over the last five years.
So hang onto all of that purple paraphernalia for now. You’ll likely need it later this season.
