Making sense of Monday's Brumbaugh Brum-bomb
MORE: Northwestern basketball year in review l Meet Rowan Brumbaugh, the kid who turned down Kansas for Northwestern
At 1:03 p.m. Central time on Monday afternoon, a @Jeff GoodmanHoops tweet sent a shock wave through the Northwestern community: four-star point guard Rowan Brumbaugh, the No. 93 player in the nation and the crown jewel of the Wildcats' 2022 class, was decommitting from the Wildcat program.
Brumbaugh's decision stunned many fans, but, as WildcatReport learned, not the Northwestern coaching staff. In retrospect, it probably shouldn't have come as that much of a surprise to anyone.
Brumbaugh telegraphed the possibility of this move back in November, when, instead of signing his National Letter of Intent, he signed a Big Ten Tender of Financial Aid. The tender is a less restrictive document that makes a departure like this easier for a player.
The NLI is a legal document that bonds the student-athlete to the institution for a year. A tender doesn't bind the recruit to anything and can be signed any time. However, the school still has to live up to its end of the bargain if the athlete chooses to attend the school. That's why more and more athletes are opting to sign a tender, rather than an NLI.
So when Brumbaugh balked at signing an NLI and instead opted for the tender, that's when Northwestern's staff had their suspicions that their star recruit might not ever make it on campus in Evanston. Sources told WildcatReport that there were other signs, too, but that was the primary one.
At least coaches were somewhat prepared for the possibility when Brumbaugh dropped his Brum-bomb on Monday. And, looking at the bright side, at least he announced it after Christmas, so Wildcat fans could enjoy the holiday with their families without fretting about losing one of the highest-rated recruits in school history.
The angst on Monday was palpable across Twitter and on the WildcatReport message boards. "Why can't we have nice things?" was a common refrain.
But the mood at the Nicolet Center seemed to be more upbeat based on one source's reaction to the news: "We'll be ok."
Maybe that was trying to put a positive spin on a decidedly negative situation, but the fact that the Wildcats had an inkling that this could happen means they probably got a head start on contingency plans and were, at the very least, emotionally prepared for his defection.
Northwestern is no stranger to losing high-profile recruits, of course. You only have to go back two cycles for the last example.
Joe Bamisile was a Top 100 Class of 2020 guard who committed to the Wildcats before changing his mind and flipping to Virginia Tech two months later. Bamisile's decommitment came in July, however, well before the early signing period, and it gave Northwestern much more time to recruit another guard. They wound up landing Ty Berry, a three-star prospect, that October, and he now starts for the 8-2 Wildcats as a sophomore shooting guard.
Brumbaugh's defection comes much later in the game, after most of the top prospects have already signed with other schools. Right now, just 21 of the top 150 prospects in the nation for 2022 are still undecided.
Northwestern doesn't have to replace Brumbaugh with another high schooler, either. The wide-open transfer portal offers the Wildcats another enticing option. They can opt to sign a more experienced player from another program -- like Chase Audige, who transferred to NU two years ago from William & Mary and is now one of the team's stars -- rather than a high school prospect.
Still, it won't be easy to replace a star recruit like Brumbaugh. At No. 93 in the Rivals150, he was the third-highest ranked commitment for head coach Chris Collins, behind only Miller Kopp (66) and Pete Nance (67), who were both in the Wildcats' 2018 class. At 6-foot-4, he was a long, tall floor general and gym rat who possessed a certain cockiness not often seen in the NU program. And, as it turns out, won't be seen at all.
Collins offered Brumbaugh back in May, when he was an unranked three-star, and landed his commitment in August, after he had gained a fourth star and rocketed up the 2022 rankings. Brumbaugh picked the Cats over finalists Kansas, Maryland, Oregon and Texas.
To give you an idea of how big a recruit he was, WildcatReport just posted a year in review story on Monday morning touting his signing as the high point of 2021, more important than any win the Wildcats earned on the floor.
Collins spent a long time developing a relationship with a player who was a lot like he was as a collegian. And now, that commitment is gone, evaporating quicker than a two-point lead on the road.
(WildcatReport's attempt to reach Brumbaugh were unsuccessful. Our inquiries to sources about the reasons for his decision went unanswered, and we won't speculate here.)
On the floor, Brumbaugh's departure means that the future of the lead guard position is up in the air. But Boo Buie still has at least one more year of running the show for the Wildcats. Ryan Greer could make use of his “free” COVID year and come back for 2022-23, and Julian Roper II and Berry both return in the backcourt. So finding someone ready-made to take the keys next season is not an urgent need.
One player who was especially looking forward to playing with Brumbaugh was 2022 classmate Luke Hunger. The Canadian big man is a current teammate of Brumbaugh's at Gill (Mass.) Northfield Mt. Hermon, so he said that the news was "really tough to hear." He also said that he will "always support [Brumbaugh]," regardless of his decision.
Most importantly, Hunger, who chose to sign an NLI in November, is "100%" still committed to the Wildcat program. That qualifies as a ray of sunshine on an otherwise gloomy day.