Northwestern 2021 Season Preview: Receivers

Third in a series of Northwestern position-by-position breakdowns going into the 2021 season.

Offense: Quarterbacks | Running Backs

Let’s face it: Northwestern hasn’t really been a pass-happy offense for a while. Even in years when they’ve had All-Big Ten quarterbacks or receivers, head coach Pat Fitzgerald has always carried a run-first ideology. They threw the ball just 43 percent of the time last year, which was fifth-lowest in their last eight seasons. This is not an excuse to abandon hopes for an effective passing game (in fact it’s probably in many Wildcat fans’ football fantasies), but it provides a little perspective for what we will analyze and project here.

Their passing game was better in 2020, compared to the year before, but still finished in the bottom quartile, nationally, in terms of aerial assaults. It wasn’t because they weren’t completing passes (61% completion, good for 60th in the country), or because they didn’t have ruthless receivers — Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman was top-eight in the Big Ten in receptions, yardage, and touchdowns, while Kyric McGowan, John Raine and Riley Lees teamed up for 78 grabs for around 10 yards per catch. Again, the numbers were tempered due to their low pass selection.

Now, the Wildcats turn to a new quarterback learning offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian’s system, and four new starters at wideout and tight end. Fortunately, all have produced in the time they’ve been on the field, and with Coach Jake a year more comfortable with his offense, this will definitely be the most interesting position group to watch on the offense.

We saw an All-Big Ten-caliber receiver emerge in Chiaokhiao-Bowman (he was named honorable mention), as his 41 catches in nine games would have equated to 64 in the 14 games they would have played in a non-COVID-shortened season. That would have been third-best in the last six years, only behind Austin Carr’s sensational 2016 campaign where he was a Biletnikoff finalist for top receiver in the country, and Flynn Nagel’s 68 catches in 2018. RCB, the team barber, also averaged 56 yards per game, which was second only to Carr’s 95.9 in ‘16, and his (prorated) eight TDs are second to Carr as well, in that span. Even before the numbers came, he flashed the confidence, bravado and swagger that his honored Big Ten brethren typically exhibit, which was refreshing to see from a Wildcat wideout.

On top of Chiaokhiao-Bowman’s individual accomplishments, all of the pass catchers helped the Cats finish seventh in the Big Ten in completion percentage (61%), as the drops that have plagued the Wildcats at times in the past were pretty much a non-issue last season. Granted, heady quarterback play from Peyton Ramsey played a part, but the seven different receivers that were immersed into action helped account for 11 receptions per game.

This group was also reliable in the red zone. Impressively, nine of NU's 10 receiving touchdowns inside the 20 came from a WR or a TE. That’s saying something, considering we sometimes see a check-down to a running back when they’re close to the goal line. This was a refreshing and somewhat comical (because laughter is a great cover for discomfort) comparison to former OC Mick McCall, who was predictably conservative in this area, running three times and then either kicking a field goal or going for it on fourth-and-goal with some unimaginative machination. What was even better is that those 10 TDs were spread amongst five different players. Predictable, Bajakian was not.

“Northwestern needs a home-run threat” is a time-worn refrain in Evanston. They do, or at least someone to stretch the secondary. Northwestern returns just one player that averaged more than 10 ypc. Though they scored 11 touchdowns through the air, 10 of them came inside the 20, and to be honest, most were less than 10 yards away. And hey, a score is a score, but what this data suggests is that Northwestern can’t slash a defense (yet), and slow and steady doesn’t always win the race. It should also be noted that only one Wildcat receiver (TE Charlie Mangieri) who scored a touchdown last year returns in 2021.

Let’s forget about deep threats right now and focus, instead, on depth. NU brings back only one receiver who caught more than six passes last season, and once again, it’s last year’s backup tight end, Mangieri. They return just 23% of their receptions, 20% of their receiving yards, and 17% of their receiving touchdowns. They do, however, get three players back who’ve performed in the past: two were injured for over half the season (Malik Washington and Berkeley Holman), and JJ Jefferson, who sat out in 2020 altogether. They also brought in an interesting transfer in Stephon Robinson, so we’ll see how soon this talent fits “Jake’s” offensive scheme.

The lack of big plays and receiving touchdowns left Northwestern near the bottom of the Big Ten (10th) in passing efficiency. It would be understandable if the Wildcats had a bad offensive line, but the group up front ranked 24th nationally in sacks allowed, ninth on passing downs. They had the fourth-best third-down conversion rate in the conference, but on second-down, they need to be more productive when defenses are playing off their 57% tendency and expecting the run.

It’s becoming more than just an item on a Wildcat fan’s wish list. Northwestern needs a deep threat(s) to push secondaries downfield and take pressure off the run game and not make their quarterback feel he has to make magic on his own.

A new tight end will need to emerge, as Bajakian uses this position quite often. We saw positive results here last year from graduate transfer John Raine, who finished third on the team with 24 catches for a 9.7 average, a pair of touchdowns, and a couple handfuls of first-down conversions. Mangieri showed positive growth, most notably in the Wisconsin game and in the Big Ten Championship against Ohio State, but is not really a threat to game plan for at this point. The room is stacked with complementary options behind him, though nobody has any real receiving experience.

It’s assumed that quarterback Ryan Hilinski will get the ball out, due to his quick release and the O-line’s positive pass protection stats, so if these route-runners can continue to be technically sound and simply catch the ball, we should see respectable output from them. They may not be the vertical vandals that the perceived “elite” are, but if they can make their receptions count like they did last year on third-down and in the red zone, this offense will continue to be good enough to win games, which is all anyone really wants anyway.

Senior Stephon Robinson Jr. (5-foot-10, 180 pounds) transfers in from Kansas, where he played 24 games in just two-and-a-half years with the Jayhawks. In that time, he hauled in 75 passes for 1,092 yards (14.6 ypc) and nine touchdowns, most of them coming in 2019. He’s quick, with good body control, great hand-eye focus and strong hands. He played in the slot quite a bit at Kansas, so he can run the slant/skinny post/slot fade. He can create separation and does a good job extending his hands away from his body to help secure the catch on middle routes, while proving equally adept at tracking the deep ball over his shoulder. He was the Jayhawks’ best receiver in 2019, and he still performed, even when teams knew that’s where Kansas' quarterbacks were trying to go.

He’ll need some help, and we think his supporting cast will be better than most “experts” will give them credit for. Redshirt sophomore Bryce Kirtz (6-foot, 180 pounds) has a prime opportunity to cash in on his potential after signing as a high three-star prospect out of Brownsburg (Ind.) two years ago. Used primarily in the slot last year, he gloved six passes for a rate of 11.7 ypc, though he has yet to score a TD for the Cats.

Senior JJ Jefferson (5-foot-10, 180 pounds) sat out last season for personal reasons, but he is one of the fastest players on the roster and had a 12-catch, 12.9 ypc, two-TD performance in a limited 2019 season. The year before that, he caught 10 for 181 yards (18.1 ypc) and another pair of scores. With “Triple J” on the outside, and Robinson attacking the middle of the field, the Wildcats may actually have not only one, but two legit deep threats.

At tight end, senior Charlie Mangieri (6-foot-4, 250 pounds) brings back the most receiving production on the team. His seven receptions and two touchdowns are the most in either category for any returning player. Bajakian found a way to get the pass-catching Raine highly involved in the aerial attack last year, but Mangieri is a little more thunder than he is lightning. Still, he has sturdy hands as a red-zone threat, and gives them a split-zone blocker capable of removing outside threats and clearing the way for Wildcat RBs in the run game.

Their next two most experienced and productive receivers, redshirt senior Berkeley Holman (5-foot-11, 197 pounds) and junior Malik Washington (5-foot-9, 192 pounds, and now wears No. 6) are back, but both were limited due to injury last season. Holman suffered a concussion against Michigan State and it was uncertain if he would even return for an extra season. That said, both are somewhat shifty receivers that can help move the sticks. Washington caught five passes for 10 ypc, while Holman had just two grabs, but one went for 24 yards on an impressive third-and-long conversion against the Spartans.

Beyond that, there’s only two other players who have caught a pass in a game for the Purple and White. Therefore, the Wildcats will need to develop potential into productivity, and soon.

Redshirt sophomores Wayne Dennis Jr. (6-foot-3, 200 pounds, and now wears No. 8), Genson Hooper-Price (6-foot-5, 215 pounds) and Preston Bacon (6-foot-2, 195 pounds) give the Wildcats some height on the outside, but only Dennis has seen any relevant playing time. He caught two passes and was targeted three times last year, hoping to springboard that to even more accountability in 2021.

Redshirt junior Braeden Heald (5-foot-11, 198 pounds), redshirt first-year WR Jack Moses (5-foot-11, 170 pounds) senior Will Lansbury (6-foot-2, 202 pounds), and redshirt sophomore Jack Kennedy (6-foot, 201 pounds) are walkons who complete the roster of receivers — the latter two won practice player-of-the-week honors last season.

There are several competing for time behind Mangieri at tight end. There’s redshirt sophomore Thomas Gordon (6-foot-5, 240 pounds), who has seen game action the last two seasons, though mostly as a blocker. He provides a little more of an athletic option than Mangieri, though it’s been over three years since he’s caught a pass in a live game.

Sophomore Marshall Lang (6-foot-4, 235 pounds) showed enough to get some looks in five games a year ago, but did not log any catches. There’s also redshirt first-year Hunter Welcing (6-foot-3, 242 pounds), who was a high three-star recruit that enrolled in time for spring practice last year but has suffered two torn ACLs (one in high school) and did not see any game action in his first season. If Welcing can fully recover, both he and Lang fit the mold of TE that Bajakian likes to use, similar to Raine.

Redshirt senior Trey Pugh (6-foot-5, 250 pounds) has been riddled with injury throughout his career in Evanston. He’s played in a total of 26 games in four seasons, but his games-played-per-year has declined each season, and he didn’t see the field at all in 2020. It might be safe to suggest we would see him in a limited role this season, primarily as a blocker, using his 250-pound frame. However, it would be inspiring to see a red-zone touchdown to a young man whose adversity has stacked higher than his productivity.

Junior Jason Whittaker (6-foot-5, 222 pounds) made the transition from QB for a second time toward the end of last season and will likely see the field in “Heavy” (run-blocking) packages, adding another body to help move the line of scrimmage and fend off potential tacklers.

Fitzgerald hasn’t really shown a propensity to play first-year receivers very often in his tenure in Evanston. He wants them to develop and learn and grow in practice. However, with not a lot of depth at the receiver position, there’s certainly the prospect for one or more of these talented first-year pass-cachers to split the stripes.

Two that are expected to have the best shot are Jordan Mosley (6-foot, 180 pounds) and Calvin “C.J.” Johnson II (5-foot-11, 180 pounds). Both are three-stars who decommitted from Tennessee and Navy, respectively, to put pen to a program that has won four bowl games in five years. Mosley has track speed, clocking at 4.3 seconds in the 40-yard dash. He’s a good route runner who showed he could consistently beat guys off the line and leave them behind. He’s more of a deep-ball threat on account of his speed. We haven't seen a lot of film of what he can do in traffic and noticed he could use some work after the catch too.

Johnson was a big get for NU. Coaches really liked what they saw and put a lot of stock in him, even though he wasn’t a “high-star.” He played QB in high school but will likely be a slot/wildcat-type back at Northwestern. He has great vision and seems to know the right move well before he even needs to make it. Watch the film, and you’ll think defenders were running in sand and he was covered in butter as they tried to tackle him. Perhaps the most impressive stat Johnson brings are his academic marks: a 35 on the ACT and a 4.0 GPA.

There’s also Jacob Gill (6-foot, 170 pounds), a three-star who was in for the spring. He’s not as fast as the others, but carries some compensatory qualities. He’s a solid athlete with some “go get it” skills. He shows incredible hand-eye concentration and a great set of hands, laying out his body to bring in the ball if necessary. He may also be used as a KR/PR earlier in his career (if Fitzgerald elects to return kicks).

Donnie Gray (6-foot, 190 pounds) is a two-star, who was the first commitment of this recent class. He played track and basketball in addition to being a football stand-out in Connecticut.

They also brought in Tight End Lawson Albright (6-foot-4, 220 pounds), another three-star who chose the Cats over Wisconsin, Louisville and Virginia Tech, among others. He caught 29 passes for 475 yards and 10 touchdowns as a junior. His recruitment shows the continued emphasis Bajakian puts on incorporating this kind of player in his offense, but he’ll likely learn for a while before gracing the green. His dad, Ethan, played 16 years in the NFL as a long-snapper, making the Pro Bowl once.

Tim Chapman is a teacher and former Michigan high school football coach who authored the book "ChampioN Underdog" about the 1995 Northwestern Rose Bowl team (available on Amazon). Follow him via Twitter: @Champion_Lit. Email him at nufbhistorian@gmail.com.