Published Sep 23, 2024
The 3-2-1 going into Week 5
Michael Fitzpatrick  •  WildcatReport
WildcatReport

Here are three things we learned from the Washington game, two questions we have moving forward and one bold prediction about the future as the Wildcats head into their first of two bye weeks.



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THREE THINGS WE LEARNED ON SATURDAY

1. Northwestern's offense is untenable.

There are not enough words in the English language to fully capture Northwestern's offensive struggles on Saturday. The offense managed to only score three points in their Big Ten opener against Washington; two of the Cats' five points came on a safety created by the defense. As a team, the Wildcats gained just 112 yards. Worse yet, the struggles continued a gravely alarming start to the season for offensive coordinator Zach Lujan's bunch.

No sequence sums up the complete ineptitude displayed by the Cats' offense better than their third-to-last drive of the game. After a Washington touchdown to stretch the Husky lead to 24-5, redshirt sophomore running back Joseph Himon II ran the ensuing kickoff back 96 yards to the Washington 2-yard line. If that wasn't an advantageous enough spot for Northwestern, Bryce Kirtz was held on first down and the half-the-distance-to-the-goal penalty gave the Cats ball with a fresh set of downs on the 1.

The next four plays were nearly as repetitive as they were disappointing. Lausch threw an incompletion on first down; Caleb Komolafe was stuffed for no gain on second down; a low throw from Lausch couldn't be corralled by Kirtz on third down; and for good measure, Lausch fired incomplete again on fourth. Northwestern had four plays to get a single yard and couldn't punch it in.

Northwestern's litany of issues all showed up in that four-play sequence. First is play calling. When Northwestern took over on the 1-yard line, Lausch had completed 7-of-18 passes. That's a little under 39-percent. Lujan turning to his struggling quarterback three times in four plays was perplexing, no matter how little the running game could dent the Washington front.

It's still just a third of the way into the season but Lujan's tenure, which started with excitement after a prodigal tenure at South Dakota State, has quickly soured. His offense has managed only 13 points in regulation against Miami (Ohio) and Duke and took nearly the whole first half to get in gear against FCS Eastern Illinois. That all adds up to averaging a mere 17.3 points per game in 2024.

Frustrating play calling, including every goal-line snap on Saturday coming out of the shot gun or pistol, has become a consistent issue and already killed Northwestern against Duke, when Lujan called a quarterback sweep on third down that lost eight yards and destroyed their last chance in the second overtime. Lujan has this upcoming bye week to hone in on what works and stick to that over the final two-thirds of the season. Otherwise it's going to be a lot of the same for Northwestern.

Next, but equally as pressing on Northwestern's list of issues is quarterback play. Lausch's stat line from Saturday was grim: 8-for-27 for 53 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. A completion percentage of 29-percent is unheard of in modern football. His 53 yards were only seven more than Washington quarterback Will Rogers III's longest pass of the day. It is borderline impossible to win in 2024 with that kind of production (unless you're Michigan, which somehow beat USC on Saturday with 32 passing yards).

Lausch looked unsettled for the entirety of his first career road start as the Husky defense dared him to pick them apart. He held the ball too long and often missed open receivers downfield. His accuracy was all over the place, missing receivers both high and low. Through two starts, the Chicago native has not been consistently accurate enough to be a successful Big Ten quarterback. He hasn't been able to deliver to receivers consistently, and primary wideout Kirtz has just four catches for 20 yards from Lausch. With two starts under his belt and an upcoming bye week to really reflect on what he's learned, Northwestern has to hope Lausch can grow and improve or else it is going to be tough sledding for the offense.

Finally, Northwestern's short-yardage struggles reared their ugly head during the Cats' two goal-line failures against Washington, as it has all too often this season. Against Miami to open the season, it was a fumbled snap on a quarterback sneak from inside the 1; the next week against Duke an ill-advised quarterback sweep on third-and-1 cost Northwestern a chance to extend the game; last time out against Eastern Illinois, Northwestern was stoned on a fourth-and-1 on their opening drive. A month into season, failing to pick up short-yardage situations has consistently hurt Northwestern. Granted, gaining yards in any situation has looked next to impossible, but failing in advantageous down and distances has made life even harder.

Through four games, Northwestern's offense has been awful, and Saturday was the worst of a quartet of duds to start the season. Lujan isn't putting his players in positions to succeed often enough and when he does, both quarterbacks Northwestern has played this season have not been able to take advantage. Absolutely everything has to be on the table to fix the situation. The current method of operation just cannot continue if the Cats want to make something out of their 2024 campaign.


2. Northwestern needs this bye week.

From Northwestern's perspective, this upcoming bye week couldn't have come at a better time. After a long flight to Seattle, a thorough drubbing at the hands of the Huskies, and a long flight back to Chicago, the Wildcats need a week to reset.

At 2-2, the season is far from lost, but the same issues have plagued NU through the first month. This week off is a chance for both the coaches and players to get back to the drawing board and find a way build out from the areas where Northwestern has been able to have success this year.

It seems bleak after a day like Saturday, but Northwestern's defense, special teams and experienced skill position players on offense are a strong foundation to work from. It's just a matter of finding ways to fill in the cracks and move forward as a team with everyone pulling in the same direction.

Sometimes, a game like Northwestern had on Saturday can be a good thing in the long run. The key is how Northwestern will respond to it. Just last season, the Wildcats had two clunkers in their first four game, against Rutgers and Duke, but still found their way to eight wins and made a bowl game.

If the Wildcats can go into their bye week, look at what went wrong in Seattle and come out a new, more cohesive team against Indiana on October 5, the final eight games of 2024 can have a completely different tone than the first four.


3. Northwestern needed a transfer running back.

With fifth-year senior running back Cam Porter sidelined on Saturday, Northwestern was missing arguably their most important player. Without his bell cow, and with an early two-score deficit, Lujan almost completely turned away from using his running backs.

Himon and Komolafe only combined for 12 carries against Washington. Porter's fewest in a game this season is 13 in the opener against Miami. Himon is a very talented player, as he showed on his 96-yard kickoff return and nifty 15-yard run in the third quarter. Given his slight frame, though, the best use of Himon's talents are not as an every-down, between the tackles back. Komolafe, on the other hand, hasn't seemed ready for a heavy workload thus far in his redshirt freshman season. Lujan didn't feel like he could trust either to really take on Porter's role as a workhorse and more or less abandoned a traditional run game.

Northwestern's coaches had a chance this offseason to avoid a situation like what unfolded on Saturday night by adding a transfer to replace Anthony Tyus III's departure. Tyus, the backup to Porter last season at 6-foot-1 and 226 pounds, has had a great season so far at Ohio, with career highs in carries (57), yards (391) and touchdowns (4) through just four games.

It's hard to say the staff should have simply kept Tyus when he seems to have clearly had an interest in becoming a starting back elsewhere, but more interest should have been paid to bringing in a second power back to a room where Porter is right now the only rotational player heavier than 210 pounds.

Without much of a traditional run game, more fell on Lausch's shoulders and the young signal caller making his first career road start couldn't make up the difference. It's situations like that why the coaches should have added more depth behind Porter this offseason via the portal.

TWO QUESTIONS

1. Why did David Braun kick the field goal?

Trailing 17-2, Northwestern had finally pieced together a drive deep into Washington territory and faced a fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line with 5:07 left in the third quarter. Instead of going for it and giving his team a chance to make it a one-score game, head coach David Braun opted to take the field goal and keep it a two-score game. Braun gave a word salad of an answer post game trying to explain the decision.

“You know, at some point, if we remained down 15, we were going to have to go for two as early as it was in the game,” he said. “Still significant time in the third quarter, thought that getting it down to 12 would allow us to, instead of chasing a tie, go get two touchdowns and go win the football game.”

Would Northwestern have gotten the yard and scored had Braun chosen to go for it? Based on the five more unsuccessful plays inside the Washington 2 on the next drive, probably not. But even then, the defense has more of an opportunity. The two drives that the Huskies started within their own 5 ended with a safety, and a punt from their own 8.

Braun's decision is concerning for two reasons. First, it calls into question his game management ability as kicking there did almost nothing to help Northwestern win the game. Second, choosing to kick there shows how little confidence Braun has in Lujan and the offense. If the head coach confidently would rather kick a field goal that keeps a two-score game a two-score game than trust the offense to gain one yard, things may be even bleaker than they seem in Evanston.


2. How can Northwestern get Bryce Kirtz going?

Kirtz, Northwestern's top receiver, had only one catch for two yards on Saturday night. After a great performance in the season opener where he made six catches for 91 yards, Kirtz has six catches for 49 yards over the last three games.

Lausch recognized postgame that he has to do a better job of getting the ball into Kirtz's hands moving forward, and that should be a focus for Northwestern over their bye week. Rectifying the fact that a player who was honorable mention All-Big Ten a season ago has consistently been a nonfactor is the clear starting point for trying to inject life into Northwestern's offense.

ONE BOLD PREDICTION

Northwestern's 2025 starting quarterback is not currently on the roster.

Looking for a quarterback in the transfer portal has become an annual offseason tradition in Evanston, and the Wildcats will continue it again once the 2024 season comes to a conclusion. Lausch's performance on Saturday casts massive doubt about his ability to be the quarterback against high-level Big Ten opponents. Accuracy issues have plagued the redshirt sophomore for all but the second half of the Eastern Illinois game in his two starts.

With that in mind, Braun and his staff will venture into the portal and find the 2025 starting quarterback this offseason. Since the graduation of Clayton Thorson in 2018, Northwestern has only been able to put together successful seasons under the leadership of an experienced grad transfer quarterback, like Peyton Ramsey in 2020 or Ben Bryant in 2023.

When the 2025 season kicks off, it will be seven-straight seasons a transfer takes the first snap of the season for Northwestern. With Mike Wright and Ryan Hilinski both out of eligibility after the season, the Cats will likely look for a transfer regardless of how Lausch plays to end 2024 to fill out the room. But, given Lausch's struggles, the Cats will be in the market for a starter.