By now, all the experts have made their picks for the Big Ten Championship Game and the verdict is in: No. 21 Northwestern, a 14-point underdog, will be little more than a speed bump for No. 6 Ohio State in Indianapolis.

ESPN had 15 college football reporters pick the game, and all 15 chose the Buckeyes over the Wildcats. Just two of them predicted a deficit in the single digits.

So here is our case for why David can beat Goliath on Saturday night. And why, even if the Wildcats end up losing, it may be a much better game than most think.

The Cats can run the ball: Fans who don’t follow Northwestern might laugh at this one – after all, the Wildcats still rank last in the Big Ten, and 119th in the country, in rushing at 114.8 yards per game. But that number is misleading, skewed by the middle of the season when the Wildcats’ ground game went AWOL and they ran for a grand total of 68 yards over a three-week period after Jeremy Larkin was forced to retire. (Miraculously, they won two of them on the strength of Clayton Thorson’s right arm.)

Since Isaiah Bowser took over, Northwestern has averaged a respectable 159.7 yards per game on the ground over the last six weeks. More impressively, they averaged 183 yards in wins over Iowa and Wisconsin, two teams who are better against the run than Ohio State. Bowser has run for 736 yards over the last six weeks, an average of 122.3 per game. He’s a physical power back who hits the line of scrimmage hard and has the ability to move the pile forward, even if there isn’t a hole there.

More than yardage, however, the running game may provide something even more important to the Wildcats: time of possession. If Northwestern can get Bowser going, they can eat time off the clock and keep Dwayne Haskins and that high-powered Buckeye offense on the sideline.

This isn’t your typical iron-clad Ohio State defense: In fact, Northwestern has the better defense in this game – and the better defense often wins.

This Ohio State unit isn’t one of those impenetrable titanium bank vaults that we’ve seen in recent years. The Buckeyes are talented, but they’re pretty darn average and, statistically at least, the Wildcats’ D is better in most categories, including yards, rushing and scoring (OSU is better against the pass).

What’s more, the Buckeyes have allowed more than 30 points in four of their last five games. They gave up 49 points to Purdue in their only loss of the season (the Boilers scored 27 against Northwestern), and Maryland, a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten offense, hung 51 on them and was an overtime two-point conversion away from beating them just two weeks ago.

Ohio State put an all-time beatdown on Michigan last week but the Wolverines still produced 401 yards, 28 first downs and 39 points. That would be enough to win most games.

The Wildcats’ bread-and-butter is crossing patterns: Ohio State’s pass defense is in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten – they rank eighth, allowing 237.6 yards per game. Their weakest link, most experts agree, are the linebackers, who aren’t always disciplined in coverage. That could play right into Northwestern’s hands.

The Wildcats thrive on crossing patterns and rub routes that require linebackers and safeties to move in space and cover guys like Flynn Nagel, Riley Lees and Cameron Green over the middle. They love isolating Nagel and then make the defender chase him through traffic across the field. The short-passing game also renders Ohio State’s pass rush much less effective, as Thorson should be getting the ball out of his hands relatively quickly.

If Ohio State’s safeties start cheating closer to the line of scrimmage, then Thorson can take a shot downfield. Hitting even one long pass – especially early – can completely change the trajectory of the game and make the defense respect the long ball.

The Cats will play a lot of zone: Looking at tape of Ohio State’s 62-point explosion against the top defense in the nation last week is enough to give defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz the chills. But Northwestern is no slouch defensively and may be better suited to defending the Buckeyes’ turbocharged attack than the Wolverines were.

Michigan played a lot of man-to-man coverage on the outside to send an extra pass rusher at Haskins last Saturday. That strategy was money for the Wolverines all season, but they went bankrupt against Ohio State’s speedy wideouts, who torched them for big plays multiple times.

Northwestern is a much different team. They will play a soft Cover-4 shell and try to keep Parris Campbell and all those Buckeye burners in front of them. Then, they have to tackle well. Hankwitz won’t blitz and put his corners on an island very often. The pass rush doesn’t figure to get to Haskins much, anyway – if Michigan’s blitzing front couldn’t get to him, it’s doubtful that NU’s will.

In short, Northwestern will give up the short passes rather than risk the long ball over the top. Their goal is to make the Buckeyes execute well enough to march all the way down the field in 10 or more plays. The more snaps, the better.

Northwestern’s defense is nails in the red zone: Look, Ohio State is going to move the ball – they don’t lead the Big Ten in points, yards and passing for nothing. The key for the Wildcats will be holding the Buckeyes to more field goals than touchdowns when they get to the red zone. And that may not be as difficult as you think.

For one, Northwestern owns a stingy red-zone defense. The Wildcats rank a mediocre seventh in red-zone defense in the Big Ten, but that measures only how many times the opponent scored after crossing the 20-yard line – in NU’s case that’s 29 scores in 35 tries, or 82.9 percent.

However, if you measure how many TDs opponents scored, it’s a different story. The Wildcats allowed just 16 TDs in those 35 chances, or 45.7 percent. That’s the second lowest rate in the conference, behind only Michigan State.

On the other hand, Ohio State is one of the most inefficient red-zone offenses, for whatever reason. In a whopping 60 trips inside the 20 – the most in the Big Ten – the Buckeyes scored 46 times, a conversion rate of just 76.7 percent. That ranks 13th in the Big Ten, better than only Rutgers. What’s more, they scored touchdowns on just 36, or 60 percent, of those trips.

Northwestern is healthy at the right time: Northwestern played without three-quarters of its starting secondary for most of the last three games. But starting corners Trae Williams and Montre Hartage are expected to play against the Buckeyes, as is starting safety Jared McGee. Williams and McGee both saw some action in the second half against Illinois – not in an effort to win the game, but to get them some reps and knock off some of the rust. Linebacker Nate Hall, who served a one-half suspension last week for a targeting call against Minnesota and then didn’t play in the second half against Illinois, will also be ready to go. There are rumors that freshman corner Greg Newsome, who earned a starting job early in the season, may play for the first time since the Michigan game.

On offense, leading receiver Flynn Nagel, who hurt his ankle in the first quarter of the Minnesota game and didn’t play against Illinois, will also be back in the lineup against the Buckeyes.

Head coach Pat Fitzgerald did a masterful job coaching the last two games while resting his starters, getting two wins and not jeopardizing anyone’s health. All hands are on deck now – and, thanks to Fitzgerald, all hands will be available.

All the intangibles are in Northwestern’s favor: The game is in Indianapolis, and Northwestern is 5-0 away from Ryan Field this season. The Cats are double-digit underdogs, and they’ve been 6-1 as the underdog against the spread this season, winning all six of them outright. It’s a Big Ten game, and Northwestern has won seven conference games in a row and 15 of their last 16 over the past two seasons.

Not only that, but all the pressure on Saturday night will be squarely on the Buckeyes. They are No. 6 in the CFP poll and will likely have to not only win, but win big, to have a chance to zoom past Oklahoma and into the final four. Plus, they are coming off playing their best game of the season – by far – in the biggest game of the season – by far. Can they get up two weeks in a row, when it’s Northwestern, the team they’ve beaten 30 of the last 31 times they’ve played, and not the hated Maize & Blue on the other sideline? Every bettor in America wants to know the answer to that question.

This much we do know: if the Ohio State team that destroyed Michigan last week shows up, its curtains for the Cats. The Wildcats won’t be able to hang with the Buckeyes at full throttle, even if they play their best game of the year.

But if the inconsistent Ohio State team that played most of the season shows up, we’ll have a ball game. And if the Wildcats can hang around until the fourth quarter…look out.