What we've learned so far about the Wildcats
In a season that looked like it could be head coach Chris Collins' last, Northwestern has rallied and built a formidable defensive identity. The offense has struggled, but Collins has leaned heavily on a close-knit and experienced core to lead the Wildcats to wins down the stretch.
With about a third of the season done, and a solid 6-2 start under their belt, here is what we have learned about this team so far:
Collins has answered Dr. Gragg's challenge
Northwestern athletic director Derrick Gragg issued a statement after last year's disappointing season, acknowledging the program's downturn and underperforming results, and calling for "necessary changes" to build toward success this season. It was regarded by many as a one-year warning that Collins would be coaching for his job this season.
Collins has answered the challenge. Despite an evident talent drop-off with forward Pete Nance and center Ryan Young transferring to North Carolina and Duke, respectively, the Wildcats have taken a step forward from last season. Collins' dedication to rebuilding this team's identity around defense is evident, and they are punching far above their weight class so far. Whether that results in the number of wins necessary to keep Collins' job remains to be seen.
Last year's team got off to a 6-2 start, as well, and even reached 9-2 before getting into the grind of Big Ten play and finishing 15-16. Even if that is what the future holds for Northwestern again, this team feels markedly different than any Collins team of the last five years.
Their defensive intensity and commitment to each other is evidence that the team, and Collins, are not prepared to throw in the towel on his tenure.
Northwestern's defense is one of the best in the country
Northwestern has one of the best defenses in the country right now, which is surprising to say the least. The Wildcats rank 25th in defensive rating and 12th in points allowed, an absurd improvement over last year, when they ranked 172nd and 198th, respectively. The Wildcats, led by Chase Audige, have taken their defensive intensity to another level this season.
Bill Simmons coined the term "stocks" (steals + blocks) in the Book of Basketball, and it is a great barometer of the various ways that Northwestern's players are forcing turnovers. The Wildcats have three players averaging two or more stocks: Chase Audige (3.7), Ty Berry (2.2) and Matt Nicholson (2.1).
Boo Buie and Brooks Barnhizer are also chipping in by averaging a steal or more per game. Audige is leading the way as an absolute terror on the perimeter, but this has been a conscious shift in the team's dynamic.
New assistant coach Chris Lowery, a defensive specialist, deserves a lot of credit for the Wildcats' transformation. The Wildcats swarm and pressure ballhandlers, have active hands in passing lanes, and funnel slashing or attacking offense towards the stingy duo of Tydus Verhoeven and big man Matt Nicholson.
There will probably be a drop-off in the defense's counting numbers when they hit the heart of Big Ten play, but they have proved their mettle against ranked opponents like Auburn and Michigan State. And, the rest of their schedule has not been filled with cupcakes or lightweights.
Northwestern has played well against a range of opponents
Looking at Northwestern's schedule preseason, Collins, and a lot of fans, would be pretty pleased with the Wildcats' record through eight games. The 29-point loss to Pittsburgh at home remains a blemish on an otherwise strong start, and Northwestern has performed well against a variety of opponents.
Their two games against ranked opponents have arguably been their best: a one-point loss to No. 13 Auburn in Cancun, and a seven-point win at No. 20 Michigan State to start 1-0 in conference play.
But their other performances deserve some shine, too. Liberty and Purdue-Fort Wayne are both having solid starts to their season and could go on to compete for their respective conference championships. Northwestern beat them by 14 and eight, respectively.
Georgetown sits at .500, with a heavy likelihood to be well below that mark for the rest of the season and be a non-factor in the Big East. However, Power Six wins are Power Six wins, and a Northwestern team that can take care of those matchups is a welcome sight.
The aforementioned blowout loss to Pitt, combined with cupcake wins over NIU and Chicago State, keep the Wildcat resume short of ideal. But Northwestern, ranked 63rd by KenPom.com, has cut its teeth against a variety of quality opponents, and met a multitude of challenges head on.
Northwestern's offense still has a lot to figure out
The defense has had a truly excellent start to the season, the offense...well, the offense has not. Northwestern ranks 324th in points per game, and 295th in offensive rating. Buie leads the Wildcats in scoring with just 15.3 points per game. Buie, Audige, Berry and Robbie Beran are the only Wildcats averaging more than six points per game; none of them are shooting 40% from the field.
The Wildcats have survived games and earned wins by forcing turnovers, living off the fast break and hoping that one or two of the Buie, Berry and Audige trio catches fire in the half-court. Northwestern has been consistently plagued by slow starts, and teams like Pittsburgh and Auburn have been able to capitalize.
The Wildcat defense has been able to have the offense's back until it find its rhythm or one of the aforementioned trio gets hot, but it remains to be seen how long that system can be sustained. If Collins can find a way to get Northwestern's offense out of the cellar without sacrificing the defensive excellence, this team could make some noise this season.
Collins will keep a tight rotation this season
This team's ability to stay healthy will be crucial if the Wildcats want to continue their success, because Collins has been noticeably reticent to test this roster's depth.
Last season, 10 players averaged 10 or more minutes per game. This season, even though the Cats have yet to get into the meat of the conference schedule, the number of players in double-figure minutes is down to eight. Last season, no players averaged 30 or more minutes per game. This season, that number is up to three.
Even with an early season injury to Julian Roper II, Collins responded by tightening his rotation even further, playing a core of seven players.
Now with Roper back, the Wildcats will be able to spell Audige, Berry and Beran more often, but Buie will be counted on to log minutes in the mid-to-high 30s all season.
The Wildcats can build a solid foundation for Big Ten play
As mentioned earlier, Northwestern started 9-2 last year and finished 15-16. A strong start does not guarantee a translation to Big Ten play, but it sure doesn't hurt. Northwestern's defense has kept them in almost every game this season, and they have executed down the stretch to get big wins and build a quality resume early.
They have a very manageable schedule the rest of December, with four non-conference home games: Prairie View A&M, DePaul, UIC and Brown. With the way Northwestern's defense has been playing, the Wildcats have the chance to start 10-2, with their two losses coming at the hands of Power Six opponents.
The true test of this team will be its trio of Big Ten games to start 2023: Ohio State and Illinois at home, and then Indiana on the road. How well the Wildcats play those opponents, and if they can steal a win, will be indicative of where Northwestern fans should set their sights on the rest of the season.
But until then, the Wildcats need to take care of December business -- and fans should just sit back, suspend their anxiety about the upcoming Big Ten schedule, and just enjoy the ride.