Published Nov 5, 2021
Fearless Forecast: Iowa vs. Northwestern
Staff
WildcatReport.com

Some say he inherited the mojo from Gary Barnett, who red-circled Iowa on the schedule every year. Some say it's because he broke his leg against Iowa as a player in 1995.

Whatever the reason, Pat Fitzgerald has the Hawkeyes' number.

The Wildcats' head coach got the first Big Ten win of his career against the Hawkeyes in 2006. He is 9-6 all-time against them, and he's won four of the last five.

All of those games were against Iowa's Kirk Ferentz, who is the longest-tenured head coach in the nation. In his 23 years in Iowa City, Ferentz is 9-11 against the guys in Purple and 97-68 against all other Big Ten teams combined.

Will history repeat itself on Saturday night? Can the Wildcats (3-5, 1-4 Big Ten) upset the 22nd-ranked Hawkeyes (6-2, 3-2) and send them to their third straight loss? Or will chalk and 12-point favorite Iowa prevail and hand Northwestern its third straight defeat?

Our staff breaks it down and makes their predictions.


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Jared Thomas (2-4)

My take: This game will be decided on the line of scrimmage. Northwestern needs to run the ball and rack up the time of possession by getting into third-and-manageable situations. They also need to take care of the football and win the turnover battle.

Both teams know what the other team is going to do, and knows where they're going to be. Whoever executes better than the other team has been what this game has always been about. Northwestern needs to eliminate the big mistakes early in the game that has cost them this season.

It's going to be a physical, lunch pail, 15-round fight. Northwestern has a great opportunity, at home to turn their season around.

Fearless forecast: Northwestern 17 Iowa 10

Confidence level: 6 (out of 10)


Michael Fitzpatrick (5-3)

My take: Northwestern has won four of the last five meetings against the Hawkeyes and in order to have much hope of potentially making it to a bowl game, they will have to make it five of six. That will be no small task against an Iowa team that boasts one of the best defenses in the country.

Iowa makes a living creating turnovers, and protecting the ball has actually been an area where the NU offense has been fine. It’s areas like getting a first down and scoring points that have really tripped up the NU offense. Granted, Andrew Marty came in last week and moved the ball. He and Evan Hull will come play on Saturday, as they’ve done every game this season. Whether the offensive line holds up well enough and the depleted receiving corps catches passes that hit them in the hands are up in the air.

The key in this game will be time of possession. Northwestern has gotten completely dominated in that statistic the last two weeks. The problem is really on both sides of the ball. The defense can’t get off the field on third down until they’ve let the other team get inside the red zone. There’s no issue with being a bend-but-don’t-break defense that holds teams to field goals in the red zone, necessarily, but when that comes at the end of a seven-minute drive with six third-down conversions, it costs Northwestern a lot more than three points. Pair that with the Ryan Hilinski-led offense of the last two weeks that made getting a first down look like rocket science, and it’s going to lead to lopsided time-of-possession numbers.

NU has a chance against the Hawkeyes if they’re able to get back to playing ball-control offense and getting off the field on third down defensively, but there’s just too many red flags with the Cats’ shaky run defense and third down struggles.

Fearless forecast: Iowa 27 Northwestern 14

Confidence level: 10


Matthew Shelton (5-3)

My take: Iowa is reeling with back-to-back losses after their hot 6-0 start, but will edge out the Wildcats in a rock fight under the lights at Ryan Field. Both of these offenses are struggling: Iowa has averaged a little under 13 points per game over their last four, Northwestern has averaged a little under 10. This will come down to the defenses and the turnover battle, Iowa's home turf this season.

Explosive plays from Evan Hull and the newly returned Andrew Marty will keep Northwestern in this game early, but an all too familiar refrain will play out as Iowa's defense clamps down and Northwestern's defense can't get off the field. The Hawkeyes will wear the Wildcats down, control the clock and escape with a win to right their ship.

Fearless forecast: Iowa 24, Northwestern 14

Confidence level: 10


Louie Vaccher (6-2)

My take: As bad as Northwestern's offense has been this year, Iowa's, shockingly, is even worse. The Hawkeyes rank 124th in the nation in total offense, averaging less than 300 yards per game. Their usual rock-solid running game ranks 117th. That's why I think the Wildcats have a chance in this one. The key: holding onto the football.

During their 6-0 start, the Hawkeyes enjoyed a 19-4 advantage in turnover margin on their rise up to No. 2 in the polls. But in the last two weeks, the script has been flipped. Iowa turned the ball over seven times, with just one takeaway, as they got beat by Purdue and Wisconsin by a combined score of 51-14.

Neither offense is going to do much in this one (tip: take the under). Northwestern's defense has struggled all year, but without the threat of explosive plays, they should be able to contain the Hawkeyes' anemic ground attack and make Spencer Petras beat them with his arm. On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats have to find some semblance of a running game with Evan Hull to eat some clock and move the chains.

It's going to be a tight, low-scoring affair, and Northwestern has won more one-score games over the last 16 years than any Power Five program. That's no accident. Iowa makes one more mistake than Northwestern, and the Wildcats pull off a stunner.

Fearless forecast: Northwestern 17 Iowa 14

Confidence level: 5