Well, here we go again. For the third straight week, Northwestern, the team that continues to confound us, is a home favorite against a team that it "should" beat.
The Wildcats won their season opener as a 13.5-point underdog over Nebraska in Ireland. Then, they lost their last two games, as 10- and 13-point favorites, to Duke and Southern Illinois, respectively. Both in ugly fashion.
On Saturday, the Wildcats are a 7.5-point favorite against Miami (Ohio), a MAC team that's 1-2 with its only win coming against an FCS team. That's the same level of football as Southern Illinois, the team that beat NU just last week.
We doubt there is any bettor in America confident about putting money on either team in this one. Really, all we know about the Wildcats so far is that they play much better in Europe than they do in the United States -- and that could be a big problem moving forward.
But don't worry, all that uncertainty won't stop our intrepid staff from boldly predicting the outcome. (Of course, the fact that we aren't risking any money makes it a lot easier, too.)
Can the Wildcats rebound from two straight home losses to underdogs and beat Miami (Ohio)? Or will Northwestern's season continue to spiral with a third straight loss?
Our staff weighs in with their picks.
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MORE CATS COVERAGE: Five things to know about Miami (Ohio) l Niro 'a complete asset' for Northwestern l Win or lose, Fitz is gonna Fitz
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Matthew Shelton (0-3)
My take: I appreciate Louie for allowing me to forecast another game after my SIU prediction was, as Bob Uecker would say, "just a bit outside" (I picked Northwestern, 52-7). This is far from an inexperienced or untested Miami (Ohio) team. They have already played road games against No. 8 Kentucky and last year's CFP semifinalist, Cincinnati. Both games ended up as three-score losses, but Miami was competitive early. The Cats can't count on the bright rented lights of Ryan Field, the stage of a Big Ten matchup or Power Five size in the trenches to rattle the RedHawks.
That being said, I think Northwestern squeaks this one out. Expect the RedHawks to jump out to an early lead as the defense adjusts, but the offense will wear Miami down and bring the Wildcats back into the game later on.
The season balances on an absolute precipice in this game, and the vestiges of my trust in Pat Fitzgerald and his staff say that Northwestern is going to get the win here. The Wildcats will stay patient, weather an early Miami push, win the turnover and time-of-possession battles, and get back to .500 before starting the bulk of Big Ten play.
Fearless forecast: Northwestern 24 Miami 21
Luke Slabaugh (0-2)
My take: Ryan Hilinski took a step back in last week's soul-crushing loss to Southern Illinois. He couldn't protect the ball when he held it. He made questionable throws into coverage that bit him. What's more, NU only had one play on offense of 20 yards or more in the second half. It's unfair to peg this problem on one player; it's everyone. However, the Wildcats can do much better than five yards gained per pass attempt. They have to, if they want to improve to 2-2.
Reviewing the tape, the Cats looked flat-footed when SIU was threatening, both near and inside the red zone. SIU had one play out of the wildcat formation towards the end of the second quarter, in particular, when LB Greyson Metz was facing the ballcarrier, Javon Williams, then turned his back and chased a receiver upfield. On a run play.
Through two home games, NU has seen exceptional individual performances - Evan Hull on offense, Xander Mueller on defense, etc. - but often comes undone on avoidable turnovers or questionable decision-making between the hashes. There is no flow. There is no cohesion on either side of the ball. The Wildcats have lost their edge in each of the last two games early due to a lack of sharpness and focus. Yes, they need health and help in the secondary. All other details are extraneous. Perhaps they'll be more comfortable with an evening kickoff.
Fearless forecast: Miami 31 Northwestern 20
Louie Vaccher (1-2)
My take: Albert Einstein said that insanity is doing the same thing 'over and over and expecting different results. Well, I'm still taking the Wildcats to win. For the fourth week in a row, even if I’ve been wrong the last three times. It's not because of any great confidence I have in Northwestern. It's more because I think Miami is tailor-made for a Wildcat win.
NU's defense has struggled with big plays all season, especially through the air. But Miami will start back-up quarterback Aveon Smith on Saturday, and their offense has struggled with him at the trigger since starter Brett Gabbert went down with an injury in the season opener. The RedHawks had just 183 total yards against Cincinnati last week and are averaging 20 points and less than 300 yards per game. Northwestern will creep their safeties up toward the line of scrimmage and put the game squarely on Smith's shoulders.
Miami's defense, conversely, is strong against the run, so quarterback Ryan Hilinski will have to be much better than he was in last week's gruesome loss to SIU. He doesn't have to put up 400 yards; he just needs to avoid turnovers (he had two interceptions and a fumble last week) and take what the RedHawks give him.
It's simple: if Northwestern takes care of the football and plays a fundamentally sound game, they'll grind out a win. The issue is that they haven't done either of those things the last two weeks. Hmm. Maybe I am insane.
Fearless forecast: Northwestern 27 Miami 21