Published Oct 4, 2024
Fearless Forecast: Northwestern vs. No. 23 Indiana
Matthew Shelton  •  WildcatReport
Managing Editor

Emerging from a well-timed bye week, Northwestern (2-2) hosts No. 23 Indiana (5-0).

Originally projected to be one of the Wildcats' most winnable games, the Hoosiers have instead completed an overnight turnaround under new coach Curt Cignetti and a host of transfers to become NU's first ranked opponent of the season.

Hoosier signal caller Kurtis Rourke ranks 13th in passing yards and is tied for 17th in passing touchdowns in the nation, and collectively they average 48.4 points per game.

Northwestern, on the other hand, is on their second starting quarter and hasn't thrown for a touchdown against an FBS opponent yet. The Wildcats head into this matchup as 13.5-point underdogs.

All hope isn't lost, though. The Wildcats project to be the best defense Indiana has faced by far. Other than Maryland (56th), the Hoosiers have not faced a defense better than 95th in points allowed in the NCAA. Northwestern comes into the game ranked 23rd and has yet to allow more than 24 points in regulation.

The Wildcats' two losses have been in double overtime to an undefeated Duke team and on the road at Washington.

Can the Wildcats pull off the upset, or will they fall below .500?

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Matt Shelton (3-1)

It's time to put the fearless in the forecast, I think the Wildcats can pull off an upset. Indiana has barnstormed through nearly the first half of their schedule, but have done so against defenses well below Northwestern's standard. The defensive line will still be without tackle Carmine Bastone, but game-changing edge rusher Anto Saka should be back at full health and the rest of the squad will be hungry to give the Hoosiers their toughest task yet.

The Hoosiers proved early against Maryland they can be mortal with a scoreless first quarter and two early interceptions by Rourke.

There are still some injury impacts and questions on the offensive line for the Wildcats. Center Jack Bailey is likely out for the season and it's unclear if a newly healthy Nick Herzog will replace Cooper Lovelace at left guard. But if they can drag the Hoosiers down into a grind-it-out game, if Lake Michigan can chip in some wind and if Cam Porter can be back and contributing, this is an offense hungry to live up to its defense and raring to give Indiana a different game than they've played all year.

Through 17 games, head coach David Braun has yet to lose consecutive outings. It's time for the Cardiac Cats to make their first appearance in 2024.

Fearless Forecast: Northwestern 24, Indiana 21

Louie Vaccher (3-1)

Northwestern's defense can win this game for them. The question is if the offense can score enough to pull off an upset.

The Wildcats' defense is 10th in the nation against the run and should bottle up Indiana's ground game. The key will be putting pressure on Rourke, who is completing 73.2% of his passes and has an 11-to-2 TD/INT ratio -- though both picks came in the first half last week.

Offensively, the Wildcats need to establish their identity with the running attack and muck the game up. The return of Cam Porter should help. A lot.

You have to hope that the bye week gave coordinator Zach Lujan some time to install a few new wrinkles to what has been a woefully anemic offensive attack. Northwestern ranks 17th in the Big Ten in rushing, 17th in passing and 18th in third-down conversions. (Other than that, things are fine.) Maybe we'll see quarterback Jack Lausch running more read-option and throwing from outside the pocket? A short-yardage offense that can pick up a yard? One can hope.

Indiana's offense is a juggernaut, scoring 48.8 points per game. Even if Northwestern's salty D cuts the Hoosiers' scoring output in half, can the Wildcats score 24 points? I just don't see it.

Fearless Forecast: Indiana 24, Northwestern 13