March Madness Forecast: Northwestern vs. FAU

Northwestern is back in the NCAA Tournament for the third time in seven seasons, and the Wildcats plan to continue their unbeaten record in the first round.

They may face their toughest opening opponent yet in eighth-seeded Florida Atlantic, a Final Four team in 2023. The No. 9-seed Wildcats are unfazed by their opponent's previous accolades.

"We have great respect; our players have amazing respect for their team," head coach Chris Collins said. "We have really dug in the last -- ever since Selection Sunday -- these last four days.

"We've watched a lot of film. They know they are a really good team and they are really well-coached. Our players know they have had success in the NCAA Tournament. But really, when you go out tomorrow and play, none of that really matters."

Northwestern has struggled down the stretch, losing three of its last four games. But that's nothing new: the Wildcats lost four of its last five in 2022-23 before beating Boise State in that first-round game in Sacramento.

FAU has had a bit of a downturn after their dominant 35-4 campaign in 2022-23 where they swept Conference USA's regular season and conference titles and were ironically a seed lower in ninth. This season, they posted a 25-8 regular season that featured several heavyweight bouts early in the season to test their mettle. The Owls were ranked as high as seventh by the AP at one point.

The two teams tip off at the Barclays Center tomorrow at 12:15 pm ET to start the second day of the Tournament's first round.

Can the Wildcats continue their unbeaten streak in the first round of March Madness? Or will they meet their match in an FAU team that made a run to the Final Four a year ago? Our staff weighs in with their predictions.

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This game is going to feature some of the best guard play you see all tournament with Boo Buie going against FAU's Johnell Davis. Buie has set a blistering pace nationally among guards with 19.2 points per game and 44.3% efficiency from three, but Davis is on his heels with 18 points per game and 42.5% shooting in his own right from beyond the arc.

Buie has the edge as a floor general and distributor, Davis as a rebounder. With back-to-back tournament apperances and Top 4 Big Ten finishes from Buie, and a Final Four run led by Davis, both fanbases will take their guard over anyone in the NCAA until the clock hits zeroes on their season.

The game will hinge on how Northwestern handles FAU's 7-foot-1 center, Vladislav Goldin, with their own 7-footer, Matt Nicholson, ruled out for the tournament with a foot injury. Goldin is red-hot, having scored 20+ in seven of their last eight games, but struggled with foul trouble early in the season.

He fouled out against Arizona and Illinois, plus picked up four against Butler and Texas A&M. He made his presence known against the Illini with 23 points in just 19 minutes before picking up his fifth.

"Goldin is a terrific big man," Collins said. "Watching film, he would certainly be one of the better bigs that we've played against."

It'll be on redshirt freshman Luke Hunger, or maybe sophomore forward Nick Martinelli at the small-ball five, to pull Goldin out of the paint and force fouls. Once Northwestern takes the 7-footer off the board, it'll clear the way for Buie to go to work.

Fearless Forecast: Northwestern 68, Florida Atlantic 62

Northwestern is the underdog in this game, but I like this matchup for the Wildcats for a few reasons.

Davis is the Owls' alpha, but Northwestern figures to put Brooks Barnhizer, their All-Big Ten defensive team selection, on him. The Wildcats switch practically everything off of screens, so it will take a team effort. But the 6-foot-6 Barnhizer has a couple inches on Davis and is an excellent defender.

Goldin is going to be a handful inside, but the Wildcats are going to double-team him in the post every time he touches the ball, just like they do against any center. We'll see if the Russian big man can handle pressure and find the open shooter. Still, Northwestern bigs Luke Hunger and Blake Preston will be absolutely critical. They have to be sound and smart, and can't give away any cheap fouls. Foul trouble will be difficult for the already depleted Cats to overcome.

Offensively, I think Nick Martinelli will be the key. Goldin is the only player in the Owls' top seven above 6-foot-4. The Cats can draw Goldin out of the middle with Hunger to open things up for Martinelli to post-up against smaller players inside. That will also create some lanes for Buie and Barnhizer.

I think the Wildcats' first-round success continues, and I'll be staying in Brooklyn until Sunday.

Fearless Forecast: Northwestern 76 FAU 72