March Madness Forecast: Northwestern vs. UConn

The Wildcats won a thrilling overtime game over Florida Atlantic on Friday night in the first round of the NCAA Tournament that will go down in the annals as one of the most exciting victories in school history.

Their reward: a Sunday date with No. 1 UConn, the defending national champions.

Like FAU, the Huskies have a dominant big man in 7-foot-2 Donovan Clingan, who will be another concern for a Wildcat team without center Matt Nicholson. The difference is that, even if they stop Clingan, the Huskies have a platoon of ballers around him “that can burn you,” says head coach Chris Collins.

“I think what makes this team so dangerous, though, is Clingan is a great, great player. But all of a sudden if you sell everything out on trying to take him away, you're going to get killed by the rest of the team.”

Indeed. All five Husky starters average in double figures. Point guard Tristen Newton, who at 6-foot-5 will tower over Boo Buie, leads the way with 15.1 points per game. Cam Spencer, the younger brother of former Wildcat Pat Spencer, is a shooter who goes for 14.5. Alex Karaban contributes 13.9, Clingan 12.7…well, you get the idea. If you focus on one finger, the other four will wrap around your neck and choke the life out of you.

Can the Wildcats shock the world and upset the top-ranked Huskies? Will Northwestern reach the Sweet 16 for the first time ever? Our staff weighs in with their picks.

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Northwestern has been here before on each of their previous tournament runs. They took No. 1 Gonzaga to the wire in a 79-73 loss in 2017, and No. 2 UCLA to the same place in a 68-63 loss in 2023.

UConn might be a better team than both of those high-seeded foes from the past, and the oddsmakers agree. Northwestern opened as 14.5-point underdogs, the widest margin in the second round. That's fine by the Wildcats, who have been personally and collectively overlooked for most of their careers.

When the Wildcats' current iteration of a Big Three: Buie, Brooks Barnhizer and Ryan Langborg, are together and healthy, they have a puncher's chance against anyone. Langborg has the brace off his right ankle and ascended to his place in program history with 27 points two days ago to beat FAU.

Unfortunately, I think history repeats itself. UConn is oozing with talent, and Newton is a well-earned finalist for the Bob Cousy Award for the nation's best point guard. The Wildcats have the chemistry and the fire to push the Huskies all the way but they're the defending champs for a reason and, without Ty Berry, the Wildcats will have hard time matching UConn's prolific scoring.

The pick: UConn 81, Northwestern 75

The Wildcats were simply sensational in overtime against FAU, hitting all five of their shots from the floor, including two threes, and seven of eight free throws. They were almost perfect.

If they can sustain that level of play for 40 minutes, they could win this thing.

ESPN's Seth Greenberg aptly describing the challenge of playing UConn on SportsCenter on Sunday. He said facing the Huskies is like playing Whack-a-Mole. If you stop Clingan, up pops Newton. If you focus on Newton, up pops Karaban. The Wildcats just don't have enough clubs.

Northwestern proved its grit on Friday night with a win for the ages. Collins said that “the toughness level and heart of this team is like nothing I've ever been a part of.” All that heart and toughness will keep the Wildcats in the game, and you can bet that they will empty the chamber on Sunday night and go down fighting. There is no quit -- or fear -- in this team.

But UConn is big, fast, deep and relentless, an 800-pound gorilla. They have too much firepower for an already depleted Northwestern squad coming in with two days of rest.

It's been a great season for Northwestern. It's been a fantastic career for Boo Buie. But I'm afraid it all ends tonight in Brooklyn.

The pick: UConn 75, Northwestern 67