Ten Questions: 4. Can NU capitalize on its non-conference schedule?
Fourth of 10 questions we are asking that will determine Northwestern's 2023 season.
As former defensive coordinator David Braun takes the reins as interim head coach after the stunning firing of head coach Pat Fitzgerald on July 10, he'll need all the help he can get to try and put the still expanding hazing scandal behind the team and salvage Northwestern's 2023 campaign.
That means capitalizing on non-conference games, especially the pair outside of the Power Five.
One of the most painful parts of Northwestern's dismal 2022 season was the team's failure to take care of non-conference opponents. The struggles outside of league play were not new to the Wildcats, either.
| Season | Power Five | Overall |
|---|---|---|
|
2022 |
0-1 |
0-3 |
|
2021 |
0-1 |
2-1 |
|
2019 |
0-1 |
2-1 |
|
2018 |
0-2 |
0-3 |
|
2017 |
0-1 |
2-1 |
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TEN QUESTIONS SERIES:
1. Can the Cats flip their turnover ratio? l 2. Will the Cats be able to stop the run? l 3. Will Ben Bryant be the answer at quarterback?
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In the past five seasons with non-conference opponents, Northwestern's regular season record outside the Big Ten is 6-9 (0-6 Power Five plus Notre Dame). Their last victory over a Power Five team in a regular season matchup came in 2016, with a 24-13 win over Duke.
This isn't to say the Wildcats are incapable of winning outside of conference against a fellow P5 opponent. They thrived in the postseason, beating Auburn in the 2021 Citrus Bowl, Utah in the 2018 Holiday Bowl and Kentucky in the 2017 Music City Bowl.
But the Wildcats went 0-3 in non-conference play twice in the previous four years, under markedly different circumstances.
In 2018, the Wildcats went winless outside of the Big Ten because they played a strong slate of Notre Dame, Duke and Akron. While the Akron loss was brutal, Duke finished 8-5 and Notre Dame was a playoff team. That 2018 squad rebounded from their non-conference struggles to go 8-1 in the Big Ten and 9-5 overall, and finish with a Big Ten West title.
The 2022 team's 0-3 record was very different. Their comeback against another strong Duke team came up short on a goal-line fumble from star running back Evan Hull, and they followed it up with eyesore losses to Southern Illinois of the FCS and Miami (Ohio) of the MAC. All three ended as one-score games, but they served to fundamentally deteriorate the momentum built with the Week 0 win over Nebraska in Ireland.
What makes matters worse in hindsight is that neither SIU nor Miami finished with winning records. The Salukis went 5-6, while the Redhawks dropped to 6-7 after a Bahamas Bowl loss.
This season, Northwestern faces a very similar slate. They open with a conference opponent, Rutgers, on Sept. 3. They then host UTEP and travel to Duke. After Minnesota and Penn State, the Wildcats get one more breath of non-conference air against Howard, another FCS team, before plunging back into conference play the rest of the way.
Northwestern cannot repeat its non-conference woes this season. Duke will be another stiff test. They bring back the coaching and quarterbacking battery of Mike Elko and Riley Leonard that led them to nine wins last season, including a 31-23 win over Northwestern. In a series that Northwestern had hoped would be even when scheduled, if not tipped in their favor, the Blue Devils will be heavily favored to win their fifth straight.
But even though they may struggle against a Duke team on the rise, they have to execute against UTEP and Howard. This may seem like the bare minimum, but that's what this team needs to do right now to reestablish faith from its players, and build confidence in Braun as a head coach.
If they beat the Miners in Week 2, it would be the first win at Ryan Field since October 16, 2021, against Rutgers, and end a 693-day drought. If they can beat Howard on Homecoming three weeks later, they would double last season's win total.
Both games stand at critical points. With Braun making his coaching debut, the result of the Rutgers game is anyone's guess, but the Scarlet Knights will certainly be favored at home.
The second-week matchup with UTEP is an excellent opportunity for Northwestern to snap what may be their NCAA-leading 12-game losing streak, and an embarrassing nine-game Ryan Field losing streak. It will also be their first win in the United States in 23 months.
Once, or if, Northwestern can take care of business and reestablish a competitive baseline against UTEP, Howard stands as their next non-con oasis on Oct. 7, on Homecoming.
FCS teams were no picnic for Fitzgerald, who lost three times to a lower-level foe in his career. Braun, who came from FCS powerhouse North Dakota State, hopes to have more success.
If the Wildcats beat both UTEP and Howard, they would likely stand at 2-3 on the season, and then will have a bye week to catch their breath before they wade into the rest of their Big Ten campaign.
Even with low expectations and carrying the heavy weight of recent events, Northwestern needs to execute in its non-conference schedule to improve this season. The good news is it won't take much to improve on a 1-11 2022 campaign.