Published Nov 25, 2022
Fearless Forecast: Illinois vs. Northwestern
Staff
WildcatReport.com

Think about this: Northwestern has won only one game this season, but it was for a trophy. The Wildcats won their season-opener over Nebraska in Dublin, Ireland, to claim the Aer Lingus Classic trophy.

Now, if the Wildcats can close out what has been a disastrous season with a win over Illinois, they can claim the Land of Lincoln Trophy and go two-for-two in trophy games.

It's not much, but it's something.

Can Northwestern reprise the 2019 game, when the 2-9 Cats got off the floor to stun Illinois in the season finale? Or will it be more like last season, when a reeling NU squad got stomped by their in-state rivals to lose The Hat after holding onto it for six straight years?

Our staff weighs in with their takes.


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Matthew Shelton (7-4)

My take: This game should find the middle ground between the rally for the Hat in 2019, and last year’s blowout loss. Illinois had an incredible start to the season behind a stingy defense and one of the best running backs in the country, Chase Brown.

The Illini have lost three straight, but those two building blocks are still there. They’re allowing the third fewest points in the country, and Brown has rushed for more than 1,500 yards.

The Wildcats can’t find consistency or production on offense, and an Illinois team clinging to Big Ten West title hopes and playing for bowl position won’t give them any quarter.

Northwestern has shown flashes of competition, and the defense was stellar against Purdue, despite losing 10 straight games. But even with the Illini in a rut, and the magic of a rivalry game, Illinois will keep the Hat for the second straight season.

Northwestern’s offense won’t be able to sustain drives, and the defense will get worn down by Brown as the game goes on.

Fearless Forecast: Illinois 28 Northwestern 10


Luke Slabaugh (6-5)

My take: Illinois comes into this game on a three-game slide, but has kept every opponent within striking distance during that skid. The Illini managed to - get this - run the ball effectively, complementing their passing game even with minor injuries to running back Chase Brown. NU looked awkward defending the run last week; they lost the line of scrimmage and had no answers when Purdue decided to move east and west. That game, most of the breaks went Northwestern's way, but they still folded on third-and-longs, which has got to be deflating. I don't expect the Illini to torch the Cats, but I do believe they can find success in your traditional, ground-and-pound style of play.

Conversely, the Wildcats' offense has gone together like peanut butter and motor oil. No one had a great year. Evan Hull's final line this season will pale in comparison to 2021. Malik Washington set a career high in catches and receiving yards; he reached the end zone once. The list goes on. There were games when certain offensive weapons had no presence. That may be through no fault of their own. One could argue that poor scheming, lack of a true starting quarterback and poor preparation held the offense back from ever getting into a rhythm.

NU anticipates going with Cole Freeman under center. There is no reason to believe a team on its fourth-string QB could pull out a win in rivalry week, despite how gutsy and energetic he was in his debut.

Fearless forecast: Illinois 23 Northwestern 14


Louie Vaccher (7-4)

My take: This just isn’t a very good matchup for Northwestern. The Cats will try to run the ball, control the clock and shorten the game, but it’s going to be tough running into the teeth of that Illinois defense. So I think, especially early in the game, they’ll look for screens or short crossers to build some confidence in quarterback Cole Freeman.

Defensively, it will be all about trying to stop No. 2, Chase Brown, the No. 1 rusher in the nation. The Wildcats have been better in recent weeks but still rank 116th in the nation against the run. They will have to commit an extra hat at the point of attack, which could make them vulnerable downfield.

To pull off an upset, I think Illinois will have to help them out with some turnovers. That’s another problem area for the Cats this year: they currently rank 128th in the country with a turnover margin of -1.13.

Northwestern may be able to hang around and keep it interesting for a while, but eventually Brown and the Illini will just wear them down. The Wildcats' anemic offense just won't be able to score enough to win.

Fearless Forecast: Illinois 20 Northwestern 7