Published Oct 25, 2024
Fearless Forecast: Northwestern vs. Iowa
Staff
WildcatReport.com

Northwestern hits the road this week to take on Iowa (4-3, 2-2 Big Ten) at Kinnick Stadium. The last time they clashed was last season, at Wrigley Field, when Hawkeye kicker Drew Stevens drilled a 52-yard field goal to deal the Wildcats a 10-7 loss.

Flash forward to 2024 and both teams are reeling,. The Wildcats fell 23-3 at home to Wisconsin, while the Hawkeyes were stunned, 32-20, on the road at Michigan State.

Iowa is mired in quarterback controversy as calls for Northwestern transfer Brendan Sullivan to replace Cade McNamara mount, but their offense is still much-improved from last season, averaging 12 more points per game under new coordinator Tim Lester.

Northwestern's offensive coordinator change to Zach Lujan hasn't yielded the same results, and they're average points per game has dipped under 20 per game. The Wildcats hope Lujan's second trip to Iowa City goes better than his first, a 7-3 loss in his debut as OC at South Dakota State in 2022.

The Wildcats defense has been a bright spot, especially against the run, but they face their best opposing back yet in conference-leader Kaleb Johnson, who is already over 1,000 rushing yards. Iowa has won the last three games in the series, and a win tomorrow would be their first time winning four straight over the Wildcats since 1991-94.

Braun's Northwestern teams have been defined by their resiliency. Can they bounce back and keep their bowl hopes alive, or will the season's survival be pushed to the brink in Iowa City?

Our staff weighs in with their picks.

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Matt Shelton (5-2)

There are serious concerns after Wisconsin but I'm not ready to throw in the towel on the season just yet. If the Jack Lausch from Indiana or Maryland shows up, the Wildcats could have the best quarterback in this game as Kirk Ferentz doggedly sticks by McNamara. Some of the speed will be out of the offense with wide receiver AJ Henning likely out after an upper-body injury agaisnt Wisconsin, but some of the pop up front will be back with Josh Thompson returning at right guard.

Iowa's defense is still very strong, but it's not the force of nature from 2023. The Wildcats will have more room to operate and will be highly motivated with their season effectively on the line.

Defensively, the Wildcats will likely be down captain Xander Mueller, but they can still throw the farm at Johnson and a Hawkeye offense that was very slow to get going at Michigan State. If Lausch can get back to protecting the ball, the Wildcats can force McNamara into mistakes and control field position, even in a hostile environment.

Fearless Forecast: Northwestern 20, Iowa 14

Louie Vaccher (6-1)

This matchup is a little different this season than it usually is.

Iowa's defense isn't the elite unit it has been in recent years. Michigan State put up 468 yards and 32 points on them last week, and Northwestern's defense is actually ranked higher than the Hawkeyes'.

And while Iowa's offense is still mediocre, it is much more explosive than it was under previous coordinator Brian Ferentz. The Hawkeyes are scoring almost nine points more per game than the Wildcats.

Still, this is going to be a matchup between two defensively strong and offensively challenged teams and points will be at a premium. As usual, it will likely come down to which team takes care of the football and makes the fewest mistakes.

Northwestern's defensive MO will be simple: contain Johnson and force McNamara and the passing game to beat them through the air. I think the Wildcat defense will keep it close until the end, but I just don't have any confidence in an offense that's converting third downs at a 26.7% clip, better than just two of 133 teams in the FBS.

Long live the Big Ten West!

Fearless Forecast: Iowa 17, Northwestern 13