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Published Oct 18, 2024
Fearless Forecast: Northwestern vs. Wisconsin
Matthew Shelton  •  WildcatReport
Managing Editor

The Wildcats are riding high after a 37-10 win at Maryland that was equal parts cathartic and dominant, but they are running into a red-hot Wisconsin team this week that has beaten its last two foes by a combined score of 94-13.

The Badgers are seven-point favorites heading into the last game at the temporary complex at Martin Stadium in 2024. But everyone knows you can throw out the odds and the record books in this game.

You can't get much more evenly matched than the Wildcats and Badgers. The two teams have split their last two games, with Wisconsin winning in Evanston in 2022, and Northwestern posting a 24-10 win that earned David Braun the full-time head coaching job last year.

These two teams have split their last 10 games. If you go back to 2000, it's 9-9. In fact, if you go all the way back to 1985, it's Wisconsin 17, Northwestern 16. So you might has well flip a coin to decide it.

Will the Wildcats win their second game in a row for the first time this season? Or will the Badgers stay hot and win their third straight?

Our staff weighs in with their picks.

Matt Shelton (4-2)

Following the coin flip model, the Badgers are up. The Wildcats haven't won back-to-back games in the series in just under a decade, back in 2014 and 2015. But my prediction doesn't boil down to who's historically due and who isn't, it's about consistency and strength of opponent.

The Maryland final score belies two serious issues: just 80 rushing yards, and nearly 25 minutes of game time between offensive scoring drives with their field goal to go up 17-0 at 10:50 in the second quarter stretching to another field goal to go up 27-10 with 2:10 left in the third.

It's not clear how much they'll be able to really lean on Cam Porter just yet, he's yet to have 10+ carries since his return from injury, and their offensive line has been streaky in generating lanes for the rushing attack. Quarterback Jack Lausch has shown flashes as a drop back passer, he's been without an interception in three of his four starts, but the Wisconsin secondary is a tier above their last two opponents and could flip the turnover luck away from the Wildcats.

Northwestern's defense has enough fire and momentum to keep the Wildcats in a close one on the last game lakeside this season, but the offense hasn't shown enough consistency for me to pick them in a second straight upset.

Fearless Forecast: Wisconsin 24, Northwestern 17

Louie Vaccher (5-1)

Northwestern's offense seems to have turned a corner the last couple weeks. They are coming off of a rout of Maryland where Zach Lujan's attack scored 30 of the team's season-high 37 points. But some of that success was deceiving.

Northwestern still gained less than 300 total yards against the Terps as a lot of those points came courtesy of short fields after Maryland turnovers. The Wildcats had five three-and-outs, including four straight at one point. They converted just 3-of-12 third downs overall. They hit some big plays -- four passes of 28 or more yards -- but they didn't consistently move the ball.

That's what concerns me against the Badgers.

Third downs have been an issue all season for the Wildcats; their conversion rate of 28.9% ranks 17th in the Big Ten and 125th nationally. As usual, Northwestern's defense will keep them in the game on Saturday, but the offense needs to move the chains, eat some clock and keep on the sideline a Wisconsin offense that has put up more than 500 yards in two straight games. A running game would help do that, too, but the Wildcats haven't been very good in that department, either. They haven't reached 100 yards on the ground in any of their Big Ten games, and they averaged just 2.4 yards per carry last week.

I'm taking the Badgers a tight, low-scoring, old-fashioned slobberknocker.

Fearless Forecast: Wisconsin 20, Northwestern 17

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