The seventh of ten questions we're asking that will determine Northwestern's season.
The college football world underwent seismic changes since last season, and it has left Northwestern in a radically different landscape.
Gone is the friendly Big Ten West division that provided the pathway to two Big Ten championship appearances in three years. Here are four West Coast teams, driving the Wildcats' strength of schedule even higher than before in conference play.
Northwestern's best seasons in recent years have been defined by slow starts followed by hitting their stride in conference play against familiar foes in the Big Ten West. In their last three seasons with a bowl win (2018, 2020, 2023), they never played Ohio State in the regular season. They faced Michigan just once, in 2018, and lost, 20-17, at Ryan Field.
They play those powerhouses in back-to-back weeks in 2024. As a cherry on top, the Wildcats will also play at Washington, the national runner-up in 2023, for the first time since 1984 in the conference opener.
They'll meet the rest of the West Coasters: USC, UCLA and Oregon, in 2025. Northwestern hasn’t played UCLA since the 2005 Sun Bowl, USC since the 1996 Rose Bowl and Oregon since 1974.
These new faces are not friendly ones. Northwestern is 4-11 all-time against the quartet of newcomers. UCLA has been singled out as one of the top targets to struggle in the transition from the PAC-12, but the other three averaged a little more than 11 wins in 2023.
Can Northwestern still compete at a high level in conference with the additions of four new programs and the elimination of the cozy West division?
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TEN QUESTIONS SERIES: 1. Can the defense be elite? | 2. What will Zach Lujan's offense look like? | 3. Who starts on the offensive line? | 4. Will Northwestern have a home field advantage? l 5. Will Northwestern be able to run the ball in 2024? | 6. Will Wright be right at quarterback for the Cats?
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Northwestern head coach David Braun has publicly stated his ambition to lead the Wildcats to a berth in the new, 12-team College Football Playoff. That's not as off the table as people may think.
The Wildcats were ranked as high as 8th in the CFP Poll in 2018, and 12th in 2015. But that was in the days of the Big Ten West, when the Wildcats could prey on their peers.
As bizarre as it is to contemplate, Northwestern probably a better chance at a playoff berth than a return to the conference championship game. A trip to Indy would require a top-two finish in the even more top-heavy, 18-team Big Ten, and it’s difficult to see the Wildcats posting a better season than three of the top tier of Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan and Penn State.
The reality is that the Big Ten West protected the Wildcats from consistently facing the top teams from the East in the regular season. They have won just two of 21 games against Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State since 2010, both vs. the Nittany Lions in the early days of head coach James Franklin’s tenure.
Still, that is where Braun has set his sights. When asked at Big Ten Media Days if making a Big Ten championship or a College Football Playoff is still where Northwestern's goals are in the new conference alignment, he didn’t hesitate.
“Absolutely, it has to be,” he said. “If that's not our goal, then what are we doing? It'll have to look different. How Ohio State achieve those goals, how Michigan or USC achieves those goals, may look different than how we achieve them."
Braun highlighted player development snd the retention of star players as key cornerstones of that future. He rued that nickelback Rod Heard left for Notre Dame in the transfer portal, but pointed out that star linebacker Xander Mueller was returning for his final season with the Wildcats.
Braun is ambitious and optimistic; a head coach has to be. The Wildcats have a steep hill to climb. They've been able to stay competitive at a high level in the Big Ten before. But can they do it in an even more stacked league and without the Big Ten West?
We’ll begin to get the answer this season.
