Northwestern 2021 Season Preview: Game-by-Game Breakdown

The ninth and final installment in a series of Northwestern previewing the 2021 season.

Offense: Quarterbacks | Running Backs l Receivers | Offensive Line

Defense: Defensive Line l Linebackers l Defensive Backs

Special Teams: Specialists

The 2021 Northwestern football season is almost upon us.

In less than a week, the wait will be over. But, so too will the aroma of a 7-2 season that included a fourth straight bowl victory and win over an SEC team, preceded by a Big Ten title game appearance where the Wildcats led eventual national runner-up Ohio State at halftime. And while it was another great go-round, it’s time, once again, to grind.

So how does the 2021 season shape up for the Wildcats? We’ll look at each game on their schedule, from our usual 3-2-1 approach. We’ll examine each team’s top three strengths to prepare for, their two most glaring weaknesses NU should exploit, and make one statement that sums up our thinking for this game, as we stand here in late August.

Then, I’ll make my pre-season prediction for each contest (hoping I’m wrong on any and all foreseeable losses).

3 strengths: Nimble receivers (Jalen Nailor, Jayden Reed, Ricky White and others) that stretch the field, both vertically and horizontally; a promising/deep backfield of RBs and two capable QBs; a LOT of help from the transfer portal. (Hey, we get culture, but talent is still talent.)

2 weaknesses: Poor offensive line “production” the last few years, which led to abysmal run game numbers (one rushing TD last season); though talented, the team is still working to build cohesive experience under this second-year Mel Tucker staff.

1 thing’s for sure: This is the biggest home opener the Cats have had in years.

Chappy’s forecast: Close LOSS, due to the obscurity of this Spartan team, with newer players and newer coaches, as well as NU still trying to piece things together.

3 strengths: Big, physical (6-foot-3, 205 pound) All-MVC WR Dante Hendrix, who wears No. 8; steady offensive line that features LG Isaiah Edwards (6-foot-7, 340 pounds) from Katy, Texas, and FBS transfer OT Jalen Booth (6-foot-4, 375 pounds); after finishing 2018 nationally ranked, three of their losses in 2019 were by just one score.

2 weaknesses: Aside from NOT playing at all last season, a lot of turnovers (10 INTs, 16 fumbles); lack of explosion and scoring on offense (just 19 points per game in 2019).

1 thing’s for sure: NU damn well better win this one and avoid a repeat of the 2016 disaster against Illinois State.

Chappy’s forecast: A comfortable Northwestern WIN. As it should be.

3 strengths: Creating havoc on defense (6th in fumbles taken, 26th in sacks and 43rd in TFLs); 7th in blocked kicks; stopping drives (13th in takeaways and 65th in red-zone defense).

2 weaknesses: Taking care of the football: they were dead last (and it wasn’t close) in the NCAA in turnovers, with 19 INTs and 20 fumbles lost; struggled stopping the run (108th at 213 ypg) and lost a good amount of their defensive front.

1 thing’s for sure: The Wildcats better not get outscored like they have in the last two games against Duke: 62-24 in favor of the Blue Devils.

Chappy’s forecast: Cats WIN, but too close for comfort.

3 strengths: Great run game (18th at 217 ypg) and scoring offense (24th at 34 ppg) with all of it coming back; two talented and diverse QBs, including starter Kurtis Rourke, who’s passing skills should compliment the potent run game very well; stout pass defense (5th in pass efficiency defense).

2 weaknesses: First season in 18 years without Hall of Fame Coach Frank Solich in charge; porous red-zone defense (102nd at 89% allowance).

1 thing’s for sure: NU HC Pat Fitzgerald's teams have had trouble with the MAC of late (2-3 in the last six years), and this team spells danger. Beware!

Chappy’s forecast: Comfortable WIN, with solid second-half performance, overall.

3 strengths: Good O-line (28th in rush offense, 48th in sacks allowed); talent and athleticism at WR, but we have yet to see it on the field; an improving defense has one of the best units they’ve had since HC Scott Frost and DC Erik Chinander arrived in 2018.

2 weaknesses: Adrian Martinez, the turnover machine (35 in three years); nearly 400 yards of total offense, but just 23 ppg.

1 thing’s for sure: This is a big game for both programs, and could go a long way to dictate the future for Frost at Nebraska.

Chappy’s forecast: Close LOSS, thanks to some late Martinez magic, the kind that always seems to bump NU in Lincoln.

3 strengths: Year two of prolific OC Sean Gleeson, with a talented and underrated group of receivers and a full offseason install; quite possibly the best special teams unit in the conference, especially in the return game (including Aron Cruickshank); create defensive havoc up front: 8 TFLs per game and 12 fumbles recovered last season.

2 weaknesses: Trouble converting on third down last year (103rd at just 34%), putting their defense on the field for over 32 minutes per game (100th nationally); O-line put QBs and RBs in too many troubled situations, causing plays to break down too frequently.

1 thing’s for sure: Fitzgerald has struggled coming off a BYE (8-15), and Rutgers will likely be coming in desperate for a win following three straight tough losses, including an emotional loss vs Michigan St.

Chappy’s forecast: Comforting WIN after loss to Nebraska, with a BYE to correct issues.

3 strengths: Backfield of QB Cade McNamara and three different RBs could pose problems, especially with four starters returning on the O-line; protecting the ball: 10th in the country in turnovers, with just two fumbles lost and only four INTs thrown; protecting their backs (17th in TFLs given up and 18th in sacks allowed).

2 weaknesses: Defense was atrocious, especially in areas they needed to be strongest: defensive havoc (takeaways, TFLs and sacks), third-down defense and red-zone defense; big plays downfield from big-play receivers have hurt the Wildcats against U of M in the past, but not many of their guys will scare them this year, especially against this strong NU secondary.

1 thing’s for sure: Both teams will be 4-2 coming in, and the winner of this one will most definitely have (at least) an eight-win season.

Chappy’s forecast: Close LOSS, but who knows what to expect for HC Jim Harbaugh's team this year.

3 strengths: Run game (192 ypg last year), headlined by Mo Ibrahim, who HC PJ Fleck referred to as a “bowling ball with razor blades” (but backups Cam Wiley and Tre Potts each also averaged over 6 ypc); strong and experienced O-line, with six starters and a quality transfer who can all grade the ground and protect their passer; discipline: the Gophers were Top 20 in fewest penalties, No. 14 in fewest offensive turnovers and No. 5 in time of possession.

2 weaknesses: Lack of defensive havoc: ranked 104th in takeaways (just seven all year), 118th in sacks and dead last in QB sacks; tackling was a problem, especially in the back seven.

1 thing’s for sure: This game should determine third place in the Big Ten West.

Chappy’s forecast: LOSS, as Ibrahim wears down the Cats and Minny converts some key third-down chain-movers.

3 strengths: Defense: great last year, and they always reload, plus DC Norm Parker is one of the best in the biz; O-line: 21st in sacks allowed, 33 TFLs allowed, they have an All-American Center in Tyler Linderbaum and HC Kirk Ferentz is well known for recruiting and developing OL talent; red-zone efficiency on both sides of the ball: 10th on offense (92% success), and 12th on defense (72% allowance).

2 weaknesses: Poor pass efficiency/QB play vs. good defenses -- Spencer Petras got better toward the end of the season, but let’s remember that it came against some weaker defenses; third-down conversions (33%) and first downs gained (80th)/time of possession (76th).

1 thing’s for sure: This will be another great bout between two veteran fighters, especially with each coming off tough Big Ten West losses, muscling for position near the top.

Chappy’s forecast: Classic Northwestern WIN over Iowa, pulling it off when they’re not expected to.

3 strengths: Great defense (#5 NCAA in total defense), with, now, the best defensive coordinator in the Big Ten and one of the best in the country; outstanding red-zone efficiency on both sides (#26 OFF at 89%, #10 DEF at 72%); Jalen Berger and Graham Mertz should be a dynamite RB/QB combo that will compliment each other well.

2 weaknesses: Offense had trouble converting third downs -- No. 81 at 38%, 96th in overall first downs; only 12 takeaways last year, and four of them came in the bowl game.

1 thing’s for sure: Playing UW in Madison coming off of a tough three-game stretch will make a victory over the West favorites pretty challenging for Northwestern. But if they win this, they will likely take the division.

Chappy’s forecast: Tough LOSS, as UW’s balance makes it hard for the Cats to have control.

3 strengths: Protecting the ball (14th in NCAA in turnovers: 4 INTs, 3 lost fumbles in 6 games); very efficient QBs: Jack Plummer, the starter, and Aidan O’Connell combined to complete 68% of their passes with a 15-4 TD-INT ratio; blocking kicks (2 FGs and a punt).

2 weaknesses: Poor O-line (124th rush offense, 123rd in sacks allowed, 84th in TFLs allowed); very little havoc caused on defense: only eight takeaways, which was 98th in NCAA, 123rd in sacks and 84th in TFLs, though they were hit with injuries on the D-line much of the year.

1 thing’s for sure: Fitzgerald owns Purdue HC Brohm (3-1, with lone loss coming on a last-second FG), and this “Wrigley game” is important for Northwestern after they were embarrassed the last time there, in 2010.

Chappy’s forecast: A fun game that Northwestern should WIN in “the friendly confines.”

3 strengths: Run game (35th rush offense last year) will be better than expected, with RB Chase Brown (5.2 ypc), QB Brandon Peters (5.7 ypc) and WR/ATH Isaiah Williams (6.2 ypc); experienced and stable O-line that prevented havoc (33rd TFLs allowed, 44th in sacks allowed); they protect the ball: only nine turnovers in eight games (4 INTs, 5 lost fumbles).

2 weaknesses: Poor passing efficiency: 47% completions last year, for just 153 passing yards per game; scoring offense (111th, at 20 ppg) and offensive red-zone efficiency (119th at 69%).

1 thing’s for sure: With new HC Bret Bielema pulling out all the stops to try and “out-Chicago” Fitzgerald, this rivalry will be a lot spicier!

Chappy’s forecast: A chippy, close game that results in a WIN that keeps the Hat in Evanston for the seventh straight year.

Tim Chapman is a teacher and former Michigan high school football coach who authored the book "ChampioN Underdog" about the 1995 Northwestern Rose Bowl team (available on Amazon). Follow him via Twitter: @Champion_Lit. Email him at nufbhistorian@gmail.com.