Ten Questions: 10. How many games will the Wildcats win in 2023?
Last in a series 10 questions we are asking that will determine Northwestern's 2023 season.
There’s no team in America looking forward to the start of the season more than Northwestern. After a summer of scandal, lawsuits and the firing of iconic head coach Pat Fitzgerald, the Wildcats will be ready to kickoff next Sunday at Rutgers and finally get back to football.
The good news is that the Wildcats should be better than they were last season in all three phases. They will almost undoubtedly snap their current 11-game losing streak and win more games than they did last season.
The bad news, however, is that it won’t be enough to get the Cats out of the basement of the Big Ten West for a third straight season.
Offensively, some key transfer portal additions will improve the worst-scoring offense in the Power Five.
Former Cincinnati and Eastern Michigan quarterback Ben Bryant gives the Wildcats a steady veteran with more than 6,000 yards and 37 touchdowns passing to his credit. His presence alone, should he win the quarterback battle, should help the Wildcats hang onto the football. Turnovers were one of their biggest problems last season, when they had the worst margin in FBS football.
Northwestern also brought in two transfers to help in the passing game: possession receiver Cam Johnson, who has more than 1,300 yards receiving in his career at Vanderbilt and Arizona State, and AJ Henning, a burner from Michigan who will give the Wildcats a home-run threat they rarely have as both a receiver and a kick returner.
If Cam Porter can regain his 2020 form and give the Wildcats a ground game, they may have a semblance of a functional offense. And, hey, let’s be real: when you score 13.8 points per game, there’s really no place to go but up.
Defensively, the positive projection is more about X's and O's than Jimmy's and Joe's. New interim head coach David Braun will retain the defensive coordinator duties he was hired for last January. He promises a mix of the system that backed two FCS national title-winning squads at North Dakota State, as well as some of what Mike Hankwitz ran during his ultra-successful run as Northwestern’s defensive boss from 2008-20.
The Wildcats look pretty good in the back half, where they have a lot of experienced veterans coming back at linebacker (Bryce Gallagher, Xander Mueller and Greyson Metz) and safety (Coco Azema). They bolstered the defensive line with a pair of transfer tackles and pass-rushing specialist Richie Hagarty, a transfer from Southern Illinois.
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TEN QUESTIONS SERIES:
1. Can the Cats flip their turnover ratio? l 2. Will the Cats be able to stop the run? l 3. Will Ben Bryant be the answer at quarterback? l 4. Can NU capitalize on its non-conference schedule | 5. Can Cam Porter return to form? l 6. Does Northwestern have the depth to compete? l 7. Will Northwestern be able to pressure the passer? l 8. Are Braun and the coaching staff ready for the season? l 9. Which freshmen will step up this season?
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So those are the bright spots. Unfortunately, there are some dark ones too.
Northwestern’s offensive line has question marks outside of the left side, where tackle Caleb Tiernan and guard Josh Priebe will hold down the fort. Offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian has only been able to field a workable offense once, in 2020. Even then, they were merely passable, and they again figure to have to grind out drives without many explosive weapons outside of Henning, a largely unproven commodity as a receiver who has just 25 career catches.
On defense, Northwestern will probably struggle against the run. They finished 110th in the nation last season and, if anything, are thinner at defensive tackle this season. The linebackers are experienced, but they aren’t faster, which was at the core of their issues last season. Cornerbacks Garnett Hollis Jr. and Theran Johnson have been promising in small doses, but it’s unknown whether they are ready to be full-time starters.
The Wildcats generated just 12 turnovers and 18 sacks last season, among the worst marks in the nation. They will probably struggle in both categories again.
On top of the potential problem areas on the field, the sideline is also a concern. Braun has done a remarkable job in an almost impossible situation so far, and players respect him. But no one knows what kind of a head coach he will be in his first attempt at being the guy in charge. On top of that, his staff features six coaches in their first year in Evanston. Two of them (special assistant Skip Holtz and defensive assistant DJ Vokolek) have nebulous job titles with no clear responsibilities.
At least the schedule is somewhat favorable for Northwestern, as they avoid both Michigan and Ohio State. Northwestern could easily start the season 2-0, with a winnable opener against the Scarlet Knights, who also posted just one Big Ten win last season, and non-conference UTEP the following week. The Cats also host FCS opponent Howard in October for Homecoming, that should be another victory.
Beyond that, however, the Wildcats will likely be double-digit underdogs in every game. Every remaining team on the schedule beat the Wildcats last season, with the exception of Nebraska. Duke, a repeated non-conference opponent, has beaten Northwestern four straight times. Penn State, Iowa and Wisconsin all rank in the preseason Top 25.
The X-factor here is that it seems like all of the offseason turmoil has galvanized this team. There’s an us-against-the-world type of mentality in the locker room this season, and Braun thinks they are ready to have a “special season.” Most outlets pick the Wildcats to finish 2-10, but they could surprise a team or two.
That could be the case. But even if the Cats come out of the gate swinging, as the season wears on and injuries take their toll, their lack of depth will likely catch up to them.
Predictions:
Matt Shelton: 2-10 (0-9). I'm going to join the consensus at 2-10. I like a lot of Northwestern's transfer talent, but the inexperience and uncertainty on both lines is too concerning. I'd pick a win over Rutgers but a first-game head coach and the turbulent offseason give the Scarlet Knights an edge early in the season. I predict Northwestern picks up two non-con wins, but gets shut out in conference play.
Louie Vaccher: 4-8 (2-7). I’m feeling optimistic, for some reason. The Cats beat Rutgers, UTEP and Howard, and then pull off one more surprise, maybe against Nebraska or Purdue, two programs who also feature new coaches this season.