The ninth of ten questions we're asking that will determine Northwestern's season.
There were a lot of reasons why Northwestern won seven more games than they did in 2022.
They had a veteran quarterback at the helm who made smart decisions with the football. Their defense, under a new coordinator, returned to their fundamental roots and allowed six fewer points per game. Their offense, with several new pieces, scored nine more points per outing.
It was a total team effort that enabled the Wildcats to go from 1-11 in 2022 to 8-5 with a bowl win last season. The fact that it all happened after the shocking firing of head coach Pat Fitzgerald less than two months before the season made it the feel-good story of the year in college football and earned first-year head man David Braun the Big Ten Coach of the Year award.
You can crunch the numbers multiple ways to explain the Wildcats’ turnaround. But the single biggest factor, without a doubt, was turnover margin.
Northwestern took care of the football and took it away better than just about any team in the country last season. Their turnover margin of +1.1 per game was better than all but two teams, national champion Michigan and No. 13 Penn State.
But what makes that number all the more remarkable is where it stood the year before. In 2022, the Wildcats’ turnover margin was -1.4 per game, which was tied for 128th out of 131 teams. So they leaped a remarkable 125 spots in the national rankings.
Their jump of 2.5 turnovers per game – from -1.4 to +1.1 – was far and away the best improvement in the nation. No other team improved by more than 1.7 per contest. Over the course of the season, they went from -18 to +13, an astounding swing of 31.
The Wildcats went 6-2 in games where they had fewer turnovers than their opponent. It's not a coincidence that during their four-game winning streak to close the season, they had a 12-3 advantage in turnovers.
The Wildcats were 1-1 when they had the same number of giveaways, and 1-2 when they had more. Their win over Minnesota was the only time the Cats lost the TO battle but won the war – and it took a 21-point rally in the fourth quarter to do it.
Northwestern’s climb from the fourth-worst to the third-best team in the nation in turnover margin was critical to the Wildcats’ success. Football, for all its complex schemes and exhaustive game-planning, is often a simple game. If you make fewer mistakes than your opponent, chances are you will win. (In other news, water is wet.)
The Wildcats, with savvy sixth-year QB Ben Bryant running the show for most of the year, threw just eight interceptions last season. That was less than half of the 17 they threw the year before, when the five different Wildcat quarterbacks who took snaps threw 17 of them.
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TEN QUESTIONS SERIES: 1. Can the defense be elite? | 2. What will Zach Lujan's offense look like? | 3. Who starts on the offensive line? | 4. Will Northwestern have a home field advantage? l 5. Will Northwestern be able to run the ball in 2024? | 6. Will Wright be right at quarterback for the Cats? | 7. Can Northwestern compete in the new Big Ten? l 8. Can Northwestern have a 1,000-yard receiver?
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Maybe the most amazing statistic of all is this one: Northwestern lost just one fumble all season. That has to do with excellent ball security, of course, as well as a little luck – the Wildcats put the ball on the ground 13 times but fell on 12 of them. In 2022, Northwestern lost 13 fumbles, so it was a net of +12 from year-to-year.
The offense did its part, giving the ball away just nine times all season. Only five teams in the nation had fewer turnovers.
Northwestern’s defense stepped up as well, creating 22 takeaways, which ranked 26th in the nation. The Wildcats had 13 interceptions, compared to just six in 2022. They also forced 21 fumbles and recovered nine.
So 22 takeaways minus nine giveaways yields a +13 turnover ratio, for an average of 1.1 per game. The question is whether the Wildcats can do it again.
One component they have again is a veteran quarterback in likely starter Mike Wright, a grad transfer from Vanderbilt and Mississippi State with four years and 38 career SEC games under his belt. For his career, he has thrown 10 more touchdowns than interceptions, 24 to 14. So that’s a positive.
There are also veterans all over the field at the skill positions for the Wildcats. No. 1 running back Cam Porter, top two receivers Bryce Kirtz and AJ Henning, and top two tight ends Thomas Gordon and Marshall Lang are all graduate students who have played a lot of football.
Does all that experience mean that they won’t cough the ball up from time to time? Of course not. But they are less likely to make mistakes than younger players.
The defense will also be salty. Northwestern has eight or nine seniors or graduates among its projected starting 11, depending on who gets the nods.
The Wildcats return the players responsible for 10 of their 12 forced fumbles from last season, six of their nine fumble recoveries and eight of their 13 interceptions.
Maybe more importantly, the players who created the conditions for many of those miscues are also back. They return the Cats who recorded 28 of their 30 sacks last season, along with all 17 quarterback hurries and 57 of 66 TFL. That’s a lot of havoc plays that can lead to turnovers.
Turnovers told the story of the Wildcats’ abysmal 1-11 2022 season. They also made their 8-5 resurrection in 2023 possible. Chances are, they will once again determine how well Northwestern fares in 2024.
