The last of ten questions we are asking that will determine Northwestern's 2024 season.
We've asked nine questions already about this season, but really, it all comes down to this one: what will Northwestern's record be at the end of the year?
First, a caveat: as any Wildcat fan knows, predicting Northwestern's record at the start of the year is like trying to forecast what the weather will be like for the Wildcats' season finale against Illinois on Nov. 30. You have a general idea -- it will probably be cold -- but it's still a crapshoot. Who would have predicted last August that Northwestern would wind up 8-5 last season?
Looking at the schedule, there is only one game where you think Northwestern should absolutely win: against Eastern Illinois. On the flip side, you can pencil in Ohio State and Michigan in November as losses. After that, you can make a case for them winning or losing any of the remaining nine games.
So, with all that said, here are our game-by-game predictions for the 2024 season:
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TEN QUESTIONS SERIES: 1. Can the defense be elite? | 2. What will Zach Lujan's offense look like? | 3. Who starts on the offensive line? | 4. Will Northwestern have a home field advantage? l 5. Will Northwestern be able to run the ball in 2024? | 6. Will Wright be right at quarterback for the Cats? | 7. Can Northwestern compete in the new Big Ten? l 8. Can Northwestern have a 1,000-yard receiver? | 9. Can the Cats dominate turnover margin again?
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Miami (Ohio)
When: Aug. 31
Where: Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium, Evanston, Ill.
2023 Record: 11-3, MAC champions
The skinny: Northwestern picked a doozy of an opener for the new temporary lakefront stadium. The RedHawks have an outside shot for the Group of Five College Football Playoff slot after returning most of the team that won 11 games and the MAC title before losing the Cure Bowl to App State.
Reason NU wins: The Wildcats will have an element of surprise with a new offensive coordinator (Zach Lujan) running a new offense with, most likely, a new quarterback in Mike Wright. The RedHawks have holes in the secondary Wright, Bryce Kirtz and AJ Henning may be able to exploit.
Reason NU loses: On paper, the RedHawks, led by QB Brett Gabbert, are the more experienced team. Miami is 7-3 all-time in this series, with all seven wins, against just two losses, coming in Evanston.
Gut feel: Loss, 0-1. What would Northwestern be without an early-season stumble?
Duke
When: Sept. 7
Where: Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium, Evanston, Ill.
2023 Record: 8-5
The skinny: Manny Diaz is the new boss at Duke after a rejuvenated run as the defensive coordinator at Penn State the last two seasons. However, he lasted only three years as the head coach at Miami, where he went just 21-15 over three years in the same conference, with more talent than he will have in Durham.
Reason NU wins: Duke has a completely new coaching staff and new systems on both sides of the ball, so it will take some time for them to get comfortable. They also lost quite a bit of talent through the portal, including star QB Riley Leonard to Notre Dame. It may be a blessing that the Cats are getting the Devils early in the season.
Reason NU loses: Duke has flat-out owned Northwestern over the last seven years, winning five straight in the series, all by at least one touchdown. The Devils lost Leonard but landed Maalik Murphy, a highly rated QB out of high school, from Texas.
Gut feel: Win, 1-1. The Wildcats take advantage of all the moving parts in Durham and get off the schneid against the Devils.
Eastern Illinois
When: Sept. 14
Where: Martin Stadium, Evanston, Ill.
2023 Record: 8-3
The skinny: This is the closest to a sure thing on the schedule, even though Northwestern, believe it or not, has lost its last two games against in-state FCS opponents (Illinois State in 2016 and Southern Illinois in 2022).
Reason NU wins: The Wildcats have more talent than EIU and should be able to just outmuscle the Panthers on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Besides, no coach should know the threat of an FCS foe more than Braun, even if Howard gave them a scare last season.
Reason NU loses: It’s an FCS opponent in September. Enough said. Previous head man Pat Fitzgerald lost three games to lower-division teams. The Panthers won their last four games of the 2023 season and return a savvy veteran quarterback in Pierce Holley.
Gut feel: Win, 2-1. Northwestern just has to have this one.
Washington
When: Sept. 21
Where: Husky Stadium, Seattle, Wash.
2023 Record: 14-1, PAC-12 champions, national runners-up
The skinny: The Huskies scarcely resemble the team that made the national championship game last season. They have an entirely new coaching staff and lost a ton of talent to graduation or the portal, especially on offense.
Reason NU wins: The Huskies may struggle for consistency under new coach Jedd Fisch and transfer quarterback Will Rogers, especially early in the season. The Cats have a knack for surprising teams on the road, so we wouldn't be stunned if they sneak out of Seattle with their first-ever win against the Huskies.
Reason NU loses: The Huskies may have lost a lot of players in the portal, but they still have a talented roster. Their defense will be salty. History is also on their side: Washington has outscored NU by an ugly 105-7 margin in three games -- though the last one came in 1984.
Gut feel: Loss, 2-2 (0-1 Big Ten). We think the Huskies will win, but take the Cats and the points.
Indiana
When: Oct. 5
Where: Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium, Evanston, Ill.
2023 Record: 3-9 (1-8 Big Ten)
The skinny: New coach Curt Cignetti has Indiana fans excited after leading James Madison to a 19-5 record over the last two seasons. The Dukes jumped up from FCS to FBS last season and went a remarkable 11-2.
Reason NU wins: Once again, the Cats face a team in upheaval. Is it realistic to expect Cignetti in his first year to resurrect a program that hasn't won a bowl game since 1991 and has had three winning seasons since the turn of the century?
Reason NU loses: ·The Hoosiers may be the most experienced team in the Big Ten this season, and they have fifth-year Ohio transfer Kurtis Rourke, a two-time All-MAC selection, running the show at quarterback.
Gut feel: Win, 3-2 (1-1 Big Ten). Cignetti may be a heck of a coach, but this is a much tougher turnaround job than James Madison.
Maryland
When: Oct. 11
Where: SECU Stadium, College Park, Md.
2023 Record: 8-5 (4-5 Big Ten)
The skinny: The big news out of College Park this season is that the Terps lost all-time leading passer Taulia Tagovailoa -- although NU beat him both times they met, in 2020 and 2023 (he was hurt for the 2022 matchup at Maryland).
Reason NU wins: Maryland is a team with a lot of turnover on both sides of the ball. The Wildcats are a veteran crew, and their experience could mean the difference in this one. The Cats also seem to have some Mojo against the Terps, winning three of four since 2017.
Reason NU loses: A road game on a Friday night is not an easy assignment. Head coach Mike Locksley has recruited well, so the Terps have plenty of speed and athleticism, and he is aiming for a fourth consecutive winning season.
Gut feel: Win, 4-2 (2-1 Big Ten). We'll see some cracks in the Terps' shell this season.
Wisconsin
When: Oct. 19
Where: Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium, Evanston, Ill.
2023 Record: 7-6 (5-4 Big Ten)
The skinny: Head coach Luke Fickell enters his second full season in Madison after a disappointing 7-6 campaign that included a particularly ugly 24-10 home loss to Northwestern. Fickell wasn't happy with his first season and brought in four new coaches.
Reason NU wins: The Wildcats had their way on both sides of the ball against Wisconsin last year, and both teams are largely intact. And this time the game is in Evanston, where Northwestern is 6-2 against their northern neighbors since 2000.
Reason NU loses: The Badgers will field a formidable defense that is long, athletic and opportunistic. If Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke lives up to his promise he showed as a four-star high school recruit, they could outgun the Wildcats.
Gut feel: Win, 5-2 (3-1 Big Ten). Something is amiss in Buckyland.
Iowa
When: Oct. 26
Where: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa
2023 Record: 10-4 (7-2 Big Ten), Big Ten West champions
The skinny: Well, let's see: Iowa figures to be rock-solid defensively but has question marks on offense. In other news, Taylor Swift is a popular musical artist. The biggest difference in the Hawkeyes this year is that former Wildcats Brendan Sullivan and Jacob Gill are wearing black and yellow.
Reason NU wins: Northwestern had won three straight in Iowa City before losing in 2022, so they've had success there. Last year, the Wildcats took the West champions to the wire before bowing 10-7. Once again, two scores might be enough to win, and Northwestern has more big-play potential than Iowa.
Reason NU loses: Iowa plays the play-great-defense-and-do-just-enough-on-offense-to-win game better than anyone, including Northwestern. If quarterback Cade McNamara is just mediocre, the Hawkeyes could be a dark horse to get to Indianapolis.
Gut feel: Loss, 5-3 (3-2 Big Ten). You don't beat Iowa at its own game, in its own stadium.
Purdue
When: Nov. 2
Where: Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Ind.
2023 Record: 4-8 (3-6 Big Ten)
The skinny: Purdue has a lot of familiar names back for Ryan Walters' second year in charge, including QB Hudson Card and RB Devin Mockobee. The Wildcats beat the Boilers 23-15 in Evanston last season, but Card was out with an injury.
Reason NU wins: The Boilers have a lot of veterans back on both sides of the ball, but so do the Wildcats, who have more playmakers and an advantage on defense. Northwestern won five straight at Ross-Ade before their woeful 1-11 team got drilled by the eventual West champs in 2022.
Reason NU loses: The Boilers pulled off a few impressive wins last season. With both a veteran QB and a coach in their second years, they figure to make a jump. Playing in West Lafayette in November isn't going to be easy, either.
Gut feel: Win, 6-3 (4-2 Big Ten). The Boilers will be better, but not that much better.
Ohio State
When: Nov. 16
Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Ill. (Homecoming)
2023 Record: 11-2 (8-1 Big Ten)
The skinny: This Buckeye team is LOADED, even by Ohio State standards. They got just about everybody back from last season and added studs like QB Will Howard (Kansas State), RB Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss) and S Caleb Downs (Alabama) through the portal.
Reason NU wins: Umm...Northwestern is coming off of a bye and will have two weeks to prepare? The Buckeyes have never played at Wrigley? We can't come up with much.
Reason NU loses: The same reason they've lost 34 of the last 35 matchups with the Colossus from Columbus: the Buckeyes are just better than they are.
Gut feel: Loss, 6-4 (4-3 Big Ten). The Confines at Clark & Addison has been anything but Friendly for the Cats.
When: Nov. 23
Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich.
2023 Record: 15-0 (9-0 Big Ten), Big Ten champions, national champions
The skinny: Head coach Jim Harbaugh left town before the NCAA could levy any penalties, and most of the star players who led them to the natty last year are gone, too. But this is Michigan. They still have talent everywhere, including two-year starting guard Josh Priebe, a transfer from Northwestern.
Reason NU wins: The Wolverines don't have an obvious answer at quarterback to replace JJ McCarthy, but it will be settled by November. Michigan has its annual blood feud with Ohio State the following week, so maybe they'll be looking ahead? Don't count on it.
Reason NU loses: This isn't the juggernaut it was last season, but Michigan has a pair of defensive tackles in Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham who will wreak havoc on the interior of NU's line.
Gut feel: Loss, 6-5 (4-4 Big Ten). Michigan is 38-6 all-time against NU in Ann Arbor.
Illinois
When: Nov. 30
Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Ill.
2023 Record: 5-7 (3-8 Big Ten)
The skinny: This is a pivotal season for Bret Bielema in his fourth year as head coach in Champaign. The Illini are coming off of a disappointing five-win season that included a wild 45-43 loss to Northwestern in the season finale that knocked them out of a bowl.
Reason NU wins: The Illini really struggled on defense last year and may not be much better in 2024. Northwestern has won seven of the last nine against the Illini and are just two wins from .500 in the all-time series.
Reason NU loses: Luke Altmeyer figures to be better in his second season in Champaign. The Illini put 43 points on Northwestern last season without him in the lineup.
Gut feel: Win, 7-5 (5-4 Big Ten). Northwestern gets its first win at Wrigley after four straight losses.
