In the preseason, we laid out Northwestern's biggest unknowns in our annual Ten Questions series. Now, four games in at the bye week, with the Wildcats at 2-2, we broke down how the Wildcats have answered each of those questions, good and bad.
For the most part, yes. Northwestern's defense has ranked 23rd in the country in scoring despite the offense going AWOL for swaths of all four games. Linebacker Xander Mueller has spearheaded the defense under new coordinator Tim McGarigle, and they have picked up pretty much right where they left off in 2023.
They've been extraordinarily stingy, holding Miami (Ohio) to just six points and Eastern Illinois to seven. Had Maalik Murphy's knee stayed airborne for just a hair longer on a near-strip sack, they'd have pulled off a 13-10 upset over Duke.
They put up a valiant effort against Washington, forcing a safety and holding the Huskies to 24 points to give their offense opportunity after opportunity to get back in the game. Unfortunately, those opportunities went uncapitalized. And therein lies the rub. The defense has been elite so far, but subpar offense could leave them stranded on the field in Big Ten games, fatigue could set in and that's when games could get ugly like 2021 or 2022, no matter the talent on that side of the ball.
But, for now, the defense has delivered.
2. What will Zach Lujan's offense look like?
Not pretty. While the defense has put themselves in the top quarter of the NCAA in scoring, the offense has been firmly in the cellar. At 17.2 points per game, the Cats rank 122nd, and that's with some help from an overtime touchdown vs. Duke and an FCS opponent in Eastern Illinois.
Head coach David Braun has staunchly defended Lujan so far but mistakes and stalled drives have plagued the first four games. Quarterback Mike Wright fumbled two snaps against Miami (Ohio). He lost eight yards on a third-and-1 deep in Duke territory on a quarterback power in double overtime. Northwestern switched to redshirt sophomore Jack Lausch at the helm and after a stint of success against EIU, threw for just 53 yards and two interceptions at Washington, including eight plays inside the Washington 4 without points.
It's still very early days for the prodigal play caller from South Dakota State but he has already lost more games (2) in his Northwestern tenure than he did in two seasons as coordinator for the Jackrabbits, and it's clear the offensive rebuild will need to be more intensive than just a different coach with the call sheet.
3. Who starts on the offensive line?
This is still up in the air. The first draft of the line vs. Miami (Ohio) featured Caleb Tiernan at left tackle, Nick Herzog at left guard, Jack Bailey at center, Josh Thompson at right guard and Ben Wrather at right tackle.
This was a surprise as Wrather's move from center out to tackle is highly irregular. It was expected that one of the grad transfers, USC’s Cooper Lovelace or Texas Tech’s Ryan Keenan, would take over at right tackle, and sophomore Jordan Knox would step in at left guard. Lovelace didn't crack the initial five, and Knox and Keeler have been ruled out injured all year.
The Wildcats kept Wright sack free and paved the way for 150 rushing yards in the opener against Miami. It was an optimistic start for a group with so many questions, but then Herzog aggravated an injury and has missed meaningful snaps in the last three games.
His replacement has been Lovelace, who has moved in to guard with mixed results. He played well against Duke and EIU, and Braun said the position was a toss up for Washington, though the decision was taken out of his hands when Herzog was ruled out.
Lovelace and the O-line struggled mightily in that game as the Huskies consistently broke through at the point of attack. Fueling that struggle was another substitution due to injury, as Bailey was replaced by Jackson Carsello. What little push Northwestern had evaporated with those swaps.
Herzog should be back in the mix after the bye week, but a return timetable is unclear for Bailey. Should Bailey miss Indiana, Northwestern will start their third different offensive line through five games.
4. Will Northwestern have a home field advantage?
To be determined. The Wildcats' six-game winning streak in Evanston under Braun came to a jarring halt with the loss to Duke, but they bounced back quickly with a comfortable win over Eastern Illinois. The ballyhooed Lake Michigan winds have really only arrived once at Martin Stadium, when they made the north goal posts nearly invincible against Duke. Northwestern kicker Jack Olsen missed from 29 yards and Duke kicker Todd Pellino responded in kind with a miss from 33 before squeaking in a 22-yard field goal to tie the game in regulation.
There has been a great atmosphere at the temporary stadium and it has been far, far better than any of the other alternatives, such as SeatGeek Stadium or even Soldier Field would have been at creating a positive environment for the Wildcats.
However, its true test still remains. Two of Northwestern's four remaining home opponents are undefeated: Indiana and Ohio State. Illinois has a loss, Wisconsin has two, all three to ranked opponents.
If Lake Michigan, or Wrigley Field, can level the playing field in just one of those games, the answer will be a resounding yes.
5. Will Northwestern be able to run the ball in 2024?
With Cam Porter, yes. Porter unfortunately missed the Washington game with an injury that is expected to be short-term, but has otherwise lived up to his potential as a lead back. He's looked quicker and stronger and has sustained the kind of tantalizing play he flashed way back in 2020.
He especially shined with 16 carries for 94 yards and two touchdowns vs. Duke. He has averaged 78 yards and a touchdown per game. It doesn't knock you off your chair, but he gains more than five yards per carry and has been crucial to an offense that is running for 35 more yards per game than it did last year with almost the exact same personnel.
The quarterback running game has also been more active. Wright led Northwestern in rushing with 65 yards vs. Miami and Lausch led the team vs. Washington with 21. The Washington game revealed some of the more ingrained flaws for the Wildcats when they are sans Porter.
Joseph Himon II has showcased blazing speed, including a 32-yard touchdown run against EIU. But he hasn't been able to find the holes or showcase the physicality necessary to run between the tackles. He had just five carries for 15 yards at Washington.
Caleb Komolafe has been the third man in the committee and while he has given Himon and Porter a breather, he hasn't been able to find his footing. He has 25 carries for 42 yards this season, just 1.7 yards per carry. The future is still wide open for the redshirt freshman, but 2024 has been a year too early in his progression.
6. Will Wright be right at quarterback for the Cats?
No. After splitting his first two starts, Northwestern made the decision to swap Wright for Lausch at quarterback. In his two games as starter, Wright threw for 334 yards and an interception, as well as rushing for 84 yards, a touchdown and two fumbles. Ball security was the biggest issue, as Wright could have easily had a few more turnovers on his stat sheet
Wright came in with 14 starts across four seasons of SEC play under his belt, three at Vanderbilt and one at Mississippi State, but couldn't provide the steady hand that Braun and Lujan were looking for. While Braun initially endorsed Wright as starter after the Duke loss, reviewing the tape and a couple nights of sleep to think about it led to announcing a change the next Monday. Lausch has, in turn, started the last two games.
Fans had hoped Wright would join the ranks of one-year transfers like Ben Bryant and Peyton Ramsey who piloted the Wildcats to winning seasons and bowl games, but he has instead fallen towards Hunter Johnson and Ryan Hilinski, transfers who were just never able to click in purple and white.
It's unclear if Lausch will start the rest of the season after his rough performance at Washington, but it is clear that Wright was unable to secure the job.
7. Can Northwestern compete in the new Big Ten?
They're not off to a good start. Their first and only matchup with a newcomer this season was at Washington, a 24-5 steamrolling that was not as close as the scoreboard says. With Indiana and Illinois, hopeful wins in the preseason, off to banner starts, there's barely a let up on the schedule.
Last season, Northwestern feasted on a late-season stretch against teams hovering around .500. Their last three opponents this year — Ohio State, Michigan and Illinois — could all be 10-win teams when the dust clears.
The Big Ten West security blanket is gone and the Wildcats could end up out in the cold quickly this season if they can't shape up soon.
8. Can Northwestern have a 1,000-yard receiver?
Never say never, but no. Bryce Kirtz started on pace for four digits with a six-catch, 91-yard game against Miami, but has just 49 yards in the three games since. He would need to post 108 yards a game the rest of the way.
AJ Henning has established himself as the team's leading receiver with 229 yards through four games, including 117 against Eastern Illinois, the first 100-yard game of his career. But he is also well off the pace; he would need to average 97 yards per game to get there.
Neither Kirtz nor Henning could feasibly reach those marks unless the offense were to drastically improve. Northwestern's 1,000-yard drought is set to extend another season, stretching back to Austin Carr in 2016.
9. Can the Cats dominate turnover margin again?
Not yet. The defense has held up its end of the bargain and forced 1.5 turnovers per game, just slightly less than last season's 1.7 when they finished third in the nation in turnover margin. But the offense has doubled its rate, from .7 turnovers per game to 1.5.
Part of Lausch's mandate when he took over the starting gig was to limit turnovers and, to some extent, he has. He played a clean game vs. EIU and his second interception against Washington came off a ricochet that should have been caught.
The Wildcats lost just one fumble last season, but they've lost three already in 2024. The defensive production is there for Northwestern to tighten the screws on teams the way they did last year; they have just been too inconsistent on offense to capitalize.
The Wildcats are 1-0 when they win the turnover battle so far, 1-2 when they tie or lose it.
10. How many games will the Wildcats win in 2024?
We predicted the Wildcats would be 2-2, albeit with their first two weeks flipped, and here we are. The original route ends with 7-5, but that path is far rockier now than it was preseason. Indiana is undefeated. Illinois is resurgent. Northwestern's offense looked inoperable against Washington, and the Huskies turned around and lost at Rutgers.
In the worst-case scenario, with Purdue and Maryland, the two most winnable games in a vacuum, on the road, this could be it. If Northwestern is going to post 112 yards of offense in conference play, like they did at Washington, a return to form from the 2021 and 2022 campaigns could be in the cards.
But there's still plenty of reason to expect the Wildcats can stay competitive and make a run for six wins and a bowl game. Before we mark them down for what could be nine straight losses, keep in mind that Braun is yet to lose consecutive games as Northwestern's head coach through 17 games with the headset.
The wild card is Lausch. If he can develop as a passer over the next few games, without 70,000+ fans screaming in his ear, the offense has a chance to become a solid unit. The offensive line can get healthier. They can regroup in this bye week and have a puncher's chance against any team on their schedule other than Michigan and Ohio State.
My amended pick for the season is 5-7, with an upset over Indiana, a win at Maryland and a win at Purdue, with a bowl berth on academic progress rate still a possibility.
